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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (14418)	4/12/2004 1:46:11 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95823

I agree that the short term technical picture would look better under your scenario (retrace to the recent lows before a blast up). Certainly the lower highs on the NASDAQ since last Monday don't look very bullish but the sideways action isn't all bad. I keep reminding myself that it takes anywhere from a few days to a few weeks after earnings to gauge the true reaction from investors. This is especially true with stocks that have light volume, as the TA is very suspect immediately after earnings, since they can be pushed around and "used" by the mo-mo crowd. FWIW, I was about 50% on margin a few weeks ago when the market was weak. I've lightened up substantially but I'm still only holding about 15% cash at the moment. I don't expect to do much trading unless my position trade stocks soar, dump or post earnings. As always, thanks for sharing your views and TA, as well as the market wraps! mh

To: Return to Sender who wrote (14418)	4/12/2004 6:08:08 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95823

<<Last quarter earnings and outlooks generally exceeded stated expectations and the market still sold off.>> Yes, but we have had some previous discussions along the lines of the semi-equips were arguably "over valued" at the beginning of January. As the earnings reporting season came on in full force, many "entities" took advantage of the situation by selling into the news and making some nice profits.(Wish I had been one of them!<g>) Looking at the PEG's at that point in time, Message 19705657 there were only 2 stocks, KLIC and FSII, that had PEG's less than 1. AMAT, KLAC, NVLS and TER had PEG's of 1.37, 1.65, 2.61, and 3.40 respectively. At last Friday's close, Message 20009194 they had PEG's of 0.98, 1.08, 1.15 and 1.08 respectively. KLIC and FSII closed last Friday at 0.45 and 0.81 respectively. To summarize, in January only 2 stocks in the Group had PEG's less than one, now we have 13 with PEG's less than 1. So at this point, going into this quarter's earning reporting season, the PEG's are very low compared to the January period. Arguably, the Group is now looking at still better earnings going forward - NVLS is a good example after looking at their report tonight. We have kept track of the price action for the Group since the selected base(high) of 1/16. Since that point there were 9 down weeks, then 2 up weeks, and last week was "flat". Wither do we go now? If good earnings continue to flow, order input is up, etc, much as NVLS is reporting tonight, I think the stock prices going forward will be up for the short term - otherwise, the PEG's will really be out of whack. Out of the NVLS report tonight, earnings estimates will be raised during the next few days. If other stocks bear out this scenario, they will have rising earnings estimates as well, and unless stock prices rise, the PEG's will continue to go down. Not in the cards IMO. Don