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To: mishedlo who wrote (11795)	4/12/2004 3:56:17 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Dr. Janet L. Yellen has been appointed President & Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, according to an announcement by George M. Scalise, Chairman of the San Francisco Fed's Board of Directors. Dr. Yellen is the Eugene E. and Catherine M. Trefethen Professor of Business at the Haas School of Business and Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley. She will assume her new position on June 14, succeeding current President & CEO Robert T. Parry, who last September announced his intention to retire at mid-year after serving 18 years. Scalise said the appointment was made by the directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and approved by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.

To: mishedlo who wrote (11795)	4/12/2004 9:32:42 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

exactly, wages will be last, if ever, at all (doubt it) /jw

To: mishedlo who wrote (11795)	4/13/2004 8:25:33 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

China economy races ahead despite warning signs Reuters, 04.13.04, 4:57 AM ET By Scott Hillis BEIJING, April 13 (Reuters) - China's economy likely saw annual growth of between nine and 10 percent in the first quarter, defying government attempts to head off over-heating and the threat of inflation, economists said on Tuesday. The year's first snapshot of China's gross domestic product will be unveiled by the State Statistical Bureau at 0200 GMT on Thursday and comes against a backdrop of red-hot investment, booming industry and frenzied bank lending. "China at this point is still in the upward leg of the cycle. The growth momentum has not peaked yet," said Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang, who estimates first-quarter growth was at least an annual 9.5 percent. Beijing, worried about the spectre of resurgent inflation and crippling asset bubbles, has stepped up a campaign to bring economic growth closer to the official target of seven percent. The central bank has scrambled to staunch a flood of easy loans by hiking the minimum level of deposits banks must keep in reserve three times in the past seven months. Premier Wen Jiabao publicly called for a halt to new cement, steel and aluminium projects. On Sunday, the State Council, or cabinet, vowed again to take "resolute steps" to ward off inflation and "ups and downs" in the economy, which grew 9.1 percent in 2003. But those moves may be too little, too late. "The problem is that the state planning folks have kind of lost control of the investment process so they are playing catch-up," said Arthur Kroeber, editor of The China Economic Quarterly. "And the central bank people have lost control of the lending process so they are playing catch-up," Kroeber said. It will likely turn out to be the third straight quarter of annual growth over nine percent after 9.9 percent in the year through the fourth quarter of 2003 and 9.1 percent through the third quarter. "A TONE OF URGENCY" "They will fine-tune the economy until they see more worrying signs of over-heating," Liang said. "But a lot of the things they are implementing now were not on the cards a few months ago. I guess there is a tone of urgency." Figures already released show little sign that the world's sixth-biggest economy is easing off the accelerator. China's factory output was 19.4 percent higher in March than a year earlier, and exports were 43 percent higher. Also the broad money supply was up 19.2 percent at the end of March from a year earlier, well ahead of a government target of about 17 percent and close to 2003's level. Economists said they expected the quarterly report to show annual inflation of about three percent and retail sales growth of 10 to 11 percent. Eyes will also be on fixed-asset investment, which was up a whopping 55 percent in the year through the first two months. If that pace continues, it will be a clear sign Beijing is failing to get a grip on over-investment. Goldman's Liang said fixed-asset spending probably accounted for about four percentage points of last year's 9.1 percent overall growth, with consumption accounting for two percentage points and exports making up the rest. Beijing has ruled out -- for now -- two of the most potent weapons for fighting over-heating: interest rate hikes and reform of its fixed currency, which some trade partners complain is kept at an unfairly low level. "It is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to guide fixed investment from 50 percent annual growth at present to the trend rate of about 10 to 12 percent," Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie wrote in a research note. The answer may be found only in tough measures to reform the banking system and allow them to lend based on credit-worthiness rather than political factors. "There are no precedents of achieving a soft landing with so much excess," Xie said. "The current episode again demonstrates that, without an independent and sound financial system, the management of economic cycles is virtually impossible." Copyright 2004, Reuters News Service