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Technology Stocks : Research Frontiers (REFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edscharp who wrote (5255)	4/13/2004 2:31:39 PM
From: Area51	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50536

Ed, What would be useful is if you would both summarize the pros and cons of investing in REFR (I'd be interested in Gary's and Nancy's take as well presuming they are capable of rational discourse, and are not simply interesting in performing their assigned task of generating FUD and hype respectively). This is my take: Pro: (1) Has issued licenses to a large number of industry leading glass companies indicating that market acceptance of its SPD product may be forthcoming (2) Starting to make traction with respect to commercialization (see for example EPCOT home, car, airline development (3) If you presume large market acceptance (say 1% of the market) of its products, $10 per square foot SPD film, and 10% royalties the company has earnings potential in excess of $30 per year (4) Large short position, such that if the company executes and achieves profitability the share price would likely rise rapidly. (5) Could be the next TASR Con: (1) Business Development stage company with negligible revenues to date (such investments are inherently risky) (2) Has made some overoptimistic projections in the past such that credibility of management is suspect (Even issues PR on occasion - How scandalous!) (3) Financing risk by end of 2004 has the potential for significant downward pressure on the stock price (4) Company doesn't convey its story to wall street convincingly (no analyst coverage, the nature of the licensee agreements is kept secret). (5) Large short position outstanding, with considerable resources available to attempt to generate FUD about the company. (6) Could be the next stamps.com My investment conclusion: Company has a lot of upside and downside potential. Wise investors would probably step aside or take only a small long position until there is more evidence that the company is executing. I would invest long heavily if the financing issue is resolved, and evidence appears that SPD film cost has decreased to the point that wide market acceptance is likely. Obviously those convinced of the companies success (e.g. - Nancy) should invest heavily now, and those convinced of the companies failure (e,g, - Gary) should short heavily now.