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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: energyplay who wrote (48513)4/13/2004 10:15:52 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello EP, <<Are you going to buy in your PAAS calls that you sold ?>>

... the script of DUEED (Dollar Up Everything Else Down Message 19903883 ) seems to be playing out.

There does not appear to be a great hurry to claim profit on the covered calls, since the naked puts and underlying share positions are naturally taking on offsetting losses.

Best to let the overall position bleed out over elapsed time, as a duck is separated from its head, so the eventual cooking of the duck is better.

I am figuring that:
(a) inflation is so real

(b) economic recovery is not true

(c) rising dollar due to reversed carry trade will smack US manufacturing against the rock

(d) subsequent to rising dollar will eventually come rising interest rate, anywhere in the developed world, and will whack the very expensive global housing economy against the cliff, with the most outrageous markets whacked the toughest

(e) ... and after all the excitement, the USD is still not worth its current value against hard wealth, given that no fundamental change in outlook is possible in a 'let me vote myself some money' political economy until exhaustion of energy and void of spin, and so kaboom must still be for the currency, all pegged currencies, along with all assets within USD and de facto USD (Asia) space, except commodities

(f) so, I hold my positions, however scary, because the alternatives are not exactly great.

Chugs, Jay