Yes leave it to the kerry kenedy klod kouple to be able to set up a loser loser situation for the folks in MA... ROTFLOL...
Convention seen yielding a net loss
Study says business productivity will take a $23.8 million hit
By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff, 4/13/2004
Thousands of Boston commuters delayed by subway and road closings for the Democratic National Convention will cost area businesses $23.8 million in lost productivity and push the economic impact of the event into the red, according to a new study by a local think tank.
ADVERTISEMENT
The convention, scheduled for the week of July 25, was hailed by Mayor Thomas M. Menino's office as a boon to Boston, reaping millions of dollars in economic gains. But the Beacon Hill Institute determined that transportation and other costs will outweigh the benefits of 35,000 convention delegates and visitors who will converge on Boston's hotels, restaurants, and attractions.
Major portals into the city -- the North Station commuter rail and subway stop and the Leonard P. Zakim Bunker Hill Bridge -- will be closed for all or part of the convention for security reasons. And Sail Boston and the US Olympic gymnastics trials, two major summer events slated for Boston, were moved elsewhere due to logistical problems posed by the convention, planners said. Taking into account these losses, totaling $134.4 million, Boston's economy will lose $12.8 million by staging the convention, an updated study by the institute said.
"It now seems clear the convention is going to represent a net loss to the Boston economy rather than a net gain," said David Tuerck, the executive director of The Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University, which initially estimated a $122 million gain, prior to learning of transportation delays.
Downtown businesses have rallied around the Boston 2004 convention. Behind the scenes, they are bracing for severe disruptions to employees. The Beacon Hill Institute estimates almost 149,000 commuters, or half of all the people who pass through the Zakim bridge of North Station each day, will be delayed one hour or more. The bridge, located feet from the FleetCenter, where the convention will be held, will close for four nights, July 26 through 29; North Station will also shut down completely, starting July 23, officials said.
Eaton Vance Co., which manages $85 billion in mutual funds and other investments, is preparing to help one-quarter of its 450 employees who live north of the city, including 44 who commute via North Station. Jeff Beale, chief administrative officer, said he expects many to take vacations the last weekend in July to avoid convention-related traffic jams. The firm, located on State Street, also will allow some to work at home or in a Bedford satellite office. But for Eaton Vance employees whose jobs require they come into Boston, he said, "Given the magnitude and size of what's going to happen, people will probably commute a little longer." He called the dislocations "very manageable."
Economists view economic impact studies with skepticism. It is difficult to assign accurate values to costs and benefits, and some consequences of an event are impossible to predict at all. One example is the risk an event that leaves town to avoid a convention might never return. Conversely, studies of the convention's impact fail to estimate benefits from free publicity from global television and newspaper coverage.
Massachusetts government "probably doesn't spend $10 million a year promoting" tourism, and the convention will generate "maybe 10 or 50 times that," said Jack Connors, co-chairman of Boston 2004, the convention host committee. "We're having the convention," said Connors, cofounder of a Boston ad agency, and naysayers should "lighten up and enjoy it."
Fred Carstensen, the director of the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the University of Connecticut, said public officials often overstate an event's economic benefits. For example, he said the mayor's study estimated 35,000 convention guests would spend about $353 per day, or $61.6 million total, during their Boston stay. That is "probably twice" the true number, he said. "The mayor's office should never be providing estimates of its own initiatives because they're always going to be painted in rosy terms."
Asked about the Beacon Hill study, he said its estimates of delegate and visitor spending -- about $48.5 million -- may be $20 million too high. But he said its estimates of lost activity seem "more accurate." "You always have to include negatives" in a complete economic impact study, he said.
Boston's revenue manager, Chris Giuliani, disputed the Beacon Hill Institute's finding that the convention will be a negative for the city's economy. Menino's report, released April 1, estimated a $154.2 million gain from its economic spillover as convention spending is cycled through the area.
Giuliani said an $85 million estimate for the loss of Sail Boston to Rhode Island was based on old information and was overstated, because the 2004 event was scaled down from prior years due to security concerns. He also questioned the impact from lost commute time.
"I'm not sure an employer is going to ask less of an employee because they had to spend an extra half-hour commuting," Giuliani said. The convention "will showcase what we already know about Boston and how wonderful it is."
Bob Colarossi, president of USA Gymnastics, said it was impossible to stage gymnastic trials in late June in Boston, because it would take weeks to load equipment into the FleetCenter for the convention, which is a month after the trials. USA Gymnastics was held in Boston for the 1996 and 2000 Olympics but was moved to Anaheim, Calif., this year.
"It just didn't work out this time," Colarossi said. Asked if the trials would return to Boston, he added, his organization has already held "preliminary conversations" with the city.
Dusty Rhodes, who heads Conventures, the organizer of Sail Boston, confirmed the 2004 event was "locked and loaded and ready to go" in Boston and would have drawn more than 1 million people. By November 2003, however, it was clear the city's resources "were really being all focused on doing a great job with the Democratic National Convention."
Kimberly Blanton can be reached at blanton@globe.com.
© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company. |
