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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (14463)	4/13/2004 8:26:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95837

Yes, when we have too much consensus, that always seems to be a problem. <<That worries me.>> We might have, and probably will have, a "choppy" ride on the way up, but I still think it is going to happen. After a few weeks however, the outlook seems to be very murky. As posted earlier, Message 20018927 some analysts are quite bearish, while others are very bullish. Let's go back and take NVLS as an example. First Call shows an average "next years" earnings estimate of 1.52 based on the the input of 21 analysts. The low estimate is 0.57 and the high estimate is 2.18. That's almost a 4 to 1 ratio between the high and low numbers. That tells me that the outlook for FY 2005 is really unknown - for the most part, the analysts are guessing(whats new?). Actually, we don't even have to go to FY 2005 to find "guess work". Based on 22 analyst inputs, the low and high numbers are 0.58 and 1.16 respectively, a 2 to 1 ratio between high and low, with an average number of 0.88. Some, but not all of this disparity is due to the great difference in outlook between the analysts. Some analysts think the "cycle" is over in the middle of this year, while others think it has a long time to run. This dichotomy in outlook is seen by simply looking at the high and low estimates for 2004 and 2005. The low estimate for 2004 and 2005 is 0.58 and 0.57 respectively(note the no or negative growth) and the high estimate of 1.15 and 2.18 respectively. Some think there is little or no growth in the next year while some think there is a lot of growth ahead. Given that kind of a disparity in the analyst ranks, what can us mere mortals do??;) Don