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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (4284)	4/13/2004 10:05:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on reflation/deflation Date: Tue Apr 13 2004 14:09 trotsky (today is a great example) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved of the extent to which the 'reflation' trade depends on a weaker dollar - notably, the dollar is having a very good day, and every other market is pounded relentlessly at the same time. Date: Tue Apr 13 2004 14:03 trotsky (Homestake) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved more detailed and informative of course, but the message is essentially the same - the secular deflationary trend remains very much intact, in spite of the rise in the CRB index ( which indeed probably intensifies deflationary pressures on the economy-at-large ) . the secular bond bull market is therefore very likely far from over.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (4284)	4/13/2004 10:12:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Northern Trust calls for a 50 BP hike in August northerntrust.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (4284)	4/14/2004 11:20:17 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 116555

This is not a right way to calculate because you forget that 50+% of the annual trade are made with imported materials (from the US, S.Korea, Japan, and other southeast Asia). So those countries would suffer just as much, if not more than, China. The US-Sino trade is big, but far far from creating 200 million jobs for China. Good points.. And granted, my "outhouse" analysis was very rough.. But what I was trying to state was that China had too many jobs at risk for them to make any drastic change in their Yuan/dollar peg. But I think it's fair to state that at least 100 million jobs can be accredited to China's trade with the US, if only due to trickle down derived from money being re-invested in local businesses and goods. Hawk