To: lurqer who wrote (42721 ) 4/14/2004 1:54:52 PM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467 "US DOLLAR CRISIS TAKES A VACATION" by Jim Willie CBgold-eagle.com juicy excerpts: Questions have been raised as to whether the USDollar decline has run its full course. In the face of historical precedent, current financial analysis, and close examination of central bank hindrance, any claim to the affirmative is a pathetic sales pitch. A better assessment might be a display of amateurish wishful thinking. The primary function of currency adjustment is to correct the trade imbalance and rectify the current account deficit. The January and December trade gaps were announced recently to be a shocking $43.1 and $42.5 billion, the two largest in history. Clearly, symptoms now warrant the term "crisis" to describe the current monetary climate. Japan's central bank squandered $184 billion in currency intervention during the calendar year 2003. They continue this profligate waste, squandering a reported $100 billion in the first two months of 2004. One can safely conclude, given these intercontinental credit subsidies, ... WE ARE ALREADY KNEE-DEEP IN A MONETARY CRISIS. The USDollar exchange rates, with respect to the exporting nations responsible for a trade imbalance, have shown almost no adjustment. Greenspan does not believe currency is affected by imbalances, which is an absurd denial of basic international finance. One can safely conclude ... THE GREAT US DOLLAR DECLINE HAS NOT EVEN BEGUN. China fixes a peg of their yuan currency to the USDollar, when the United States has its largest bilateral imbalance with China. Some call this peg a "Trojan Horse." Few realize that foreigners increase their holdings of US debt obligations by 1% of our nation's GDP each year, principally in sovereign debt. It is safe to say that as long as our trade partner China enforces a currency regime, ... WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A TRADE CRISIS. In the last two years, gold has behaved more like a competing currency, and less like a commodity. As the USDollar endures the relentless strain of ongoing, if not growing imbalances, made worse through the aggravation of continued federal deficit spending and private sector debt growth, commodities led by gold, the metals, and energy will benefit. A multi-year bull market is a near certainty. Gold, mirroring the currencies, has retrenched at the $390-400 mark. A few second-tier currencies are labeled as "commodity currencies," owing to the amassed and identified trove of minerals and resources within their borders. Canadian, Australian, and South African are prominent among this second tier of currencies. They serve as reliable indicators of the commodity bull market, liaisons from hard assets to the financial paper world.