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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (48568)	4/14/2004 3:30:13 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

The move from the 1980s is secular using Prechters analysis. The Gold Bugs believe it has ended, he does not. Now I do not know EWT, I just look at trends in multiple timeframes (and get confused). My definition of secular trend says up, but we have not yet had a cyclical bear to 'test' the secular precious metals bull. This could be it if we break Cyclical MA supports, and they become resistance. If this disaster scenario does come to pass - if the equity cyclical bull fails [55wk EMA/200d MA, whatever becomes resistance] then it would confirm the equity descent from 2000 as secular. I appreciate it is 4 years after the fact, but the last(and final) proof of a Secular Trend is a Cyclical contra-trend move followed by a Cyclical pro-trend move. I believe that if this happens that there would be nothing that the Fed could do. I am not predicting - just running through scenarios. Money would disappear as a result of bankruptcies/defaults etc at a fantastic rate. It is quite interesting to look at M3 i.t.o ounces of Gold. We are deflating (classically) but the drop in USD is masking this. If USD_M3 deflates in nominal terms then it would be final proof that there really is no end demand and we should all start eating sushi. I guess the Japanese would be laughing quietly amongst themselves after 14 years of lectures from the Fed. This 'point' is a good many $SPX points below and at least 1 quarter away. Fed Printing. I agree they could, and maybe would, start monetising everything that is not chained down. If they do this though it would be/should be signalled in the POG and commodities. This is why I am confused with the bond, equity, and Gold sell-off. It looks like $XAU and $HUI are going to approach support in the region of their Cyclical MAs - an intermediate-term low should be expected. If this Cyclical contraction in Dollar demand/liquidity takes hold it could easily last for a good 2 years and I would imagine that all the relationships that we have taken for granted should be thrown out the window. This is because the consensus view that the Fed can control/increase USD_M3. If this is seriously proved wrong or reversed I would have to say that TEOTWAWKI would be a mild description. - awaiting the IT low in precious metals to give me some idea of what is going on. stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pc55][vc60][iLp14,3,3]&pref=G I, for now, am assuming that the Fed are successfully inflating away. -macavity (short $SPX)