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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (11949)	4/14/2004 3:18:13 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

my bet is on stagflation with several false starts of recovery, as is this one

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (11949)	4/14/2004 3:37:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 110194

>> I think we are in a weird middle adjustment phase wherein higher yields will help the dollar wherein slower economy upcoming will end CB intervention which will raise rates and indirectly aid the dollar later, after this phase passes, we will see inflation whites of eyes, and higher gold with the dollar falling again, during harsh recession just some thoughts << Excellent analysis. My feelings too, but I probably wouldn't have been able to put it so succinctly. The real question for those who trade around their PM positions, does this intermediate phase last 1 month or 9-12 months. I suspect that some of the gold strength today - at least in the big caps like NEM is due to the fact that some are already looking beyond this middle period. The market should look ahead at least 3-6 months so I'm in the camp that this gold weakness last no more than 3-6 months before gold starts rallying strongly regardless of the Dollar. The big unknown for those who believe in the broad bull market rally (I don't) is how high, if at all, can Greenspan raise before killing the housing sector. I think conventional wisdom holds that we can take back 250-300 basis points without a crisis. I'd say even a 100 basis point move will be ground shaking. If he doesn't move, the market will do it for him.