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To: russwinter who wrote (4367)4/14/2004 9:20:33 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
copper also in backwardation. why did you choose June? are you suspecting the supply bottlenecks to "work themselves out"? it sounds like you are not, so why not go for farther out contracts for a steeper discount to the front-month?



To: russwinter who wrote (4367)4/14/2004 9:29:14 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 116555
 
Will participants hold bonds of any kind when they realize how badly inflation will ravage them

never mind inflation, just the perception of inflation does plenty of damage. a month or so ago i sold a lot of 25yr zeros for 28 and change. this morning they would have brought 4 bucks less. just one month, but the perception change has done tremendous damage to the long bonds, esp. illiquid.
i sold 5yr T's for nearly 102, this morning they probably dipped under 98.

so, to the extent that bonds are a beauty contest, holders have to be wondering when the other judges might say the turnout is too fugly to have a show.