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To: straight life who wrote (37439)	4/15/2004 12:35:21 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 118717

The Graham Fair Value is my judgment and calculation using a formula explained earlier in this thread here: Message 19686147 I view this calculation as simply a tool in part of my DD, not a "be all, end all" signal. I want to see if the rest of my analysis is supported with some downside protection. So I will take earnings estimates and growth estimates from Yahoo or First Call and scale them down if my judgment is so. (I typically won't use a growth estimate above 15%, a discipline from NAIC). By contrast, Yahoo shows AUO with a growth estimate next year of 115%. That may be, but I won't use it. Note that 3 analysts have raised their next year's estimate from $1.35 to $2.21 for AUO, but at $2.21 it is lower than this year's $2.32. I expect that $2.21 figure to be raised again once earnings come out and I used that as part of my judgment to buy. I also believe more analysts will start covering AUO, which should work to my favor. Any change in estimates or growth will have a direct impact on the Graham calculation, obviously. At only 2 or 3% of the total market now being flat panels I am betting that this will be a long growth market, albeit with lowering prices which will be offset by volume and manufacturing efficiencies. I'm encouraged by AUO's growth and market position and their breaking ground in China to build a leading edge factory and manufacture there using cheap labor. Consequently, I have AUO as my largest position, at 12% of my portfolio. Thanks for your questions. Yahoo snips: EPS Trends Current Qtr Next Qtr Current Year Next Year Current Estimate 0.58 0.50 2.32 2.21 7 Days Ago 0.41 0.38 1.50 1.35 30 Days Ago 0.41 0.38 1.50 1.35 60 Days Ago 0.41 0.38 1.50 1.35 90 Days Ago 0.41 0.38 1.50 1.35 finance.yahoo.com