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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (14492)	4/15/2004 10:29:00 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95864

Market is being its old irrational self. I shudder to think that we will go through another earnings season where good numbers will be ignored. I am trying to figure out what in the macro economic sense will turn sentiment. So far this all looks like part of a long consolidation to me but I will be nervous if three months hence the market is still blowing off good earnings. Mike

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (14492)	4/15/2004 10:51:13 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95864

Jess, value is a relative thing in the market. Since October I have seen enough institutional selling to indicate that at best money is rotating out of the sector into other areas. This is happening despite in general better than expected earnings and outlooks. Maybe there is very little value now in the industry according to institutions. That would be my opinion too unless you look at PEG's. That being said money could (probably will) rotate back into the sector although at this point the SOX looks like it will test its recent low near 454: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14] I was looking at ETF's last night; I was astounded by the number of funds that pay dividends of 3% or more. Even there I was not sure I saw value. Perhaps it is just my viewpoint that lacks value. Oh well, RtS

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (14492)	4/15/2004 12:15:11 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95864

"As I write this, Lam is off $0.70. Here's a stock that beat all of its numbers last night with a tremendously upbeat report and was upgraded this morning, and it's hemorraging like a severed aorta. The "market" seems intent on wringing value out of these stocks regardless of performance. Jess. " This is what I am writing now for my next newsletter: Chart Talk: Make sure you check this link ( stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyyay[d20020901,20041231][pa5!a10!f][vc60]&pref=G )showing how LRCX bottomed in 2002 at $6.63 then rose like a phoenix to $17.13 in December 2002 only to correct back 36% to a 2003 low of $10.77 in late April. If we look for a similar 36% correction from the top at $35.50, we get a target of $22.55! Amazing how that is only pennies away from the current March 2004 low of $22.52! So... we could be seeing a repeat of first quarter correction to be followed, hopefully, by higher prices for the remainder of the year. and "One of the most interesting things I got from the conference call was Bagley said that many fabs had sold or converted their 200mm equipment in favor of 300mm. A new application, LCD driver chips (for lap tops, TVs and cell phones) was not practical at the smaller geometries most 300mm processes are designed for. Basically the smaller chips are not "strong enough" to handle the large voltages required to drive color displays so you actually need larger chips geometries to handle the high voltage. As such, there is a real scramble to get more 200mm equipment up and running as there has been huge growth in LCD panels. I've read reports of some fabs now running above 100% capacity to meet the demand (they run on weekends and skip preventative maintenance to get the extra revenue in the short term.) He said used 200mm equipment was now almost as expensive as the new stuff! Bottom line is this is the sort of news we've been waiting for. Now we just hope it lasts for awhile so the company can print money. "