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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (11978)	4/15/2004 10:32:08 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<Clarify please.> 1. (and most important) The effects of the Fed's Fully Funded Inflation program (F3IP) without corresponding wage and salary growth will cause consumers severe strains, especially in subsistence items. I expect 3-4% of consumer spending to be diverted to food and energy. 2. The stimulative effects of tax cuts/refunds and the refi boomlet will wear off (as the inflation scare or even panic continues to unfold), causing a further contraction. 3. If F3IP is somehow maintained, I expect #1 to worsen even further, although the stimulative effects of more borrowing to fund this inflation, may prolong consumer spending, somewhat delaying the impact of #2. Pick your poison.