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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (12000)	4/15/2004 1:50:06 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Russ has been on the right side of the trade recently! > One needs to be humble on these wacko MoP interest rate plays where they just fabricate numbers to suit them, so don't put too much credence in my "right call". This however is a call I'm damn proud of: Message 19679145 Reuters Brazil soy crop forecast lowered to 50.9 mln T-FNP Thursday April 15, 1:34 pm ET SAO PAULO, Brazil, April 15 (Reuters) - An independent crop analysis firm on Thursday lowered its forecast for Brazil's 2003/04 soybean crop to 50.9 million tonnes due to poor weather and Asian soy rust. Analysts FNP said the crop would be down about 1.6 percent from last season's output of 51.8 million tonnes. In its fourth forecast of the new crop, which is now over 70 percent harvested, FNP said No. 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul would put out only 6.8 million tonnes, down 30 percent from last year due to severe drought in the region. FNP's previous forecast was not immediately available to compare with its latest outlook. The adjustment follows the trend of other forecasters who have lowered their crop estimates over recent months due to weather and disease losses. The crops in No. 2 soy state Parana and No. 5 soy state Mato Grosso do Sul were also hurt by poor rain in the past three months. Parana output should fall to 10.2 million tonnes, down nearly 6 percent from last year, and Mato Grosso do Sul output should fall to nearly 2.9 million tonnes, down 29 percent from the year earlier, FNP said in a report. FNP found that the area planted to soybeans had grown to 20.8 million hectares (51 million acres), up nearly 12 percent from last year's area. But yields would fall to 2.45 tonnes a hectare (2.471 acres) from 2.78 tonnes last season. Brazil is the world's No. 2 soy grower and exporter after the United States.