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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (7057)	4/21/2004 6:02:56 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Same ole Same Ole. I will continue to be bearish yields until we take out the 2003 top. We are in a cyclical bull (for yields) - no arguing there, but the trend is neutral/weak. Here we are at record lows for yields and they are worrying about deflation. They are absolutely right to. The whole of the recovery has been fuelled by debt - consume now; produce later. If assets/investments start to fall in price now then the boys and girls at the fed are going to have to start buying the Long End and yields should fall. USD_M3 - dollar supply/liquidity may be drying up (I am guessing). Quarterly Charts for $USD (dollar-index) and $XAU are now indicating USD strength: Buy O/sold dollar weakness from here on in unless we form new dollar lows. Monthly MACD-HISTO is effectively saying that we may have a cyclical dollar bull here. The proof will be in the pullback. The last 2-3 years quest to sell all things $USD-denominated may be ending (for now). US-Treasuries are now o/sold on the IT Timeframe within a Neutral LT (Secular) Trend. We are close to an IT buying opportunity I believe. Though I think a better technical pattern is in Gilts and Bunds. But who really knows? Not I! -macavity