Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (41074)	4/18/2004 3:11:57 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70330

30 day upside guidance Company Ticker Period Est. Preannouncement 16-Apr-04 WW Grainger GWW Y04(Dec) $2.57 $2.60-2.80 Compuware CPWR Q4(Mar) $0.05 $0.09, revenues of $337 mln, estimate $324.7 mln Ventana Medical VMSI Y04(Dec) $1.07 $1.10-1.13 on revenues o,f $1,56-159 mln, consensus $156.1 mln U.S. Xpress XPRSA Q2(Jun) $0.21 $0.25-0.30, revenues of $240-245 mln, estimate $249.1 mln Delphi Auto DPH Q2(Jun) $0.28 Revenues of $7.5-7.8 bln, consensus $7.3 bln California Micro CAMD Q4(Mar) $0.07 $0.06-0.07 on revenues of $15.6-15.8 mln, consensus $15.1 mln , 15-Apr-04 IPSCO IPS Q1(Mar) $0.39 $0.53-0.54 Ryder System R Q1(Mar) $0.39 $0.47-0.49, ex items Molex MOLX Q4(Jun) $0.25 $0.27-0.29, revenues of $600-610 mln, estimate $576.9 mln Cooper Tire CTB Q1(Mar) $0.26 $0.30-0.34 (includes charges) Reliance Steel RS Q2(Jun) $0.73 $0.85-0.95 Gibraltar St,eel ROCK Q1(Mar) $0.33 $0.45-0.48, revenues of approx $213 mln, estimate $188.8 mln Option Care OPTN Q1(Mar) $0.18 $0.20 on revenues of $103 mln, consensus $98.77 mln Natl Processing NAP Y04(Dec) $0.93 $1.00-1.05, revenues of $500-530 mln, consensus $508 mln GTECH GTK Y05(Feb) $3.01 Revenues of approx $1.27 bln, consensus $1.26 bln Deckers Outdoor DECK Q2(Jun) $0.28 $0.32-0.34 on revenues of $34-35 ml,n, consensus $29 mln Emmis Comms EMMS Q1(May) $0.12 Revenues of $158.3 mln, consensus $154.9 mln Unisys UIS Y04(Dec) $0.71 Reaffirms $0.83-0.87 (ex items) EMC Corp EMC Q2(Jun) $0.08 $0.08 on revenues of $1.950-1.975 bln, consensus $1.91 bln 14-Apr-04 , Lam Research LRCX Q4(Jun) $0.22 Revenues of $300 mln; est $270.6 mln Brady BRC Y04(Jul) $1.71 Revs $640-660 mln, est $631 mln Apple Computer AAPL Q3(Jun) $0.09 $0.14-0.15 (ex items), revenues of $1.93 bln, consensus $1.81 bln ADTRAN ADTN Q2(Jun) $0.24 $0.24-0.26; Revs $117-120 mln,est $117 mln Georgia-Pacific GP Q1(Mar) $0.48 Approximately $0.60 DuPont DD, Q1(Mar) $0.73 Approximately $0.95 Eaton ETN Q2(Jun) $0.89 $0.95-1.05, Y04 $3.75-3.90, consensus $3.51 13-Apr-04 McDonald's MCD Q1(Mar) $0.37 Approximately $0.40 WFS Financial WFSI Y04(Dec) $3.73 $4.20-4.30 Parker-H,annifin PH Q3(Mar) $0.67 $0.80 Westcorp WES Y04(Dec) $3.58 $3.90-4.00 Johnson & Johnson JNJ Y04(Dec) $2.95 As high as $3.00 Vitran VVN Q1(Mar) $0.10 $0.12-0.13, Y04 $0.98-1.05, consensus $0.98 12-Apr-04 Novatel, Wireless NVTL Q1(Mar) $0.00 $14.8-15.1 mln, est $12 mln Tesoro Petroleum TSO Q1(Mar) $0.39 $0.72, ex items MeriStar MHX Q1(Mar) ($0.03) Breakeven to $0.03 Entercom ETM Q1(Mar) $0.23 Revenues of approx $87 mln, consensus $85.96 mln Kimberly-Clark KMB Q1(Mar) $0.87 $0.91, Y04 at higher end of $3.55-3.65, consensus $3.61 Komag KOMG Q1(Mar) $0.45 Revenues to exceed $118.2 mln, consens,us $116.88 mln RedEnvelope Inc REDE Q4(Mar) ($0.34) Revenues of $16.9-17.3 mln, consensus $16.5 mln 08-Apr-04 NCR Corp NCR Q1(Mar) ($0.27) Loss of $0.06 to profit of $0.01 (ex items), revs of $1.27-1.29 bln, est $1.24 bln Bomba,y Co BBA Q1(Apr) ($0.09) High-end of loss of $0.08-0.11 Federated FD Q1(Apr) $0.36 $0.45-0.48, Y04 $3.90-4.00 (ex items), consensus $3.91 Midland Co MLAN Q1(Mar) $0.68 $0.70-0.75 (ex items), Y04 $2.00-2.20, consensus $2.11 Parametric PMTC Q2(Mar) ($0.07) Breakeven on revenues of $164 mln, consensus $157 mln AnnTaylor ANN Q1(Apr) $0.49 $0.54-0.56, Y04 $2.54-2.64, conse,nsus $2.55 JC Penney JCP Q1(Apr) $0.15 $0.20-0.25 Avnet AVT Q3(Mar) $0.25 $0.27-0.30; Revs $2.64 bln, est $2.56 bln Borg Warner BWA Q1(Mar) $1.78 $1.80, reaffirms Y04 $7.10-7.30, consensus $7.18 Stein Mart SMRT Q1(Apr) $0.16 Approximately $0.20 Nordstrom JWN Q1(Apr) $0.29 Exceed $0.23-0.28 Pacific Sunwear PSUN Q1(Apr) $0.14 $0.16 Mic,haels Stores MIK Q1(Apr) $0.34 $0.36-0.38 bebe stores BEBE Q3(Mar) $0.14 $0.16-0.14 07-Apr-04 Allstate ALL Q1(Mar) $1.16 $1.38-1.42 Dell Computer DELL Q1(Apr) $0.28 $0.28; Revs $11.4 bln, est $11.2 bln Ya,hoo! YHOO Y04(Dec) $0.54 Revenues of $2.41-2.52 bln (excluding traffic acquisition costs), consensus $2.23 bln Aeropostale ARO Q1(Apr) $0.09 $0.11 Biosite BSTE Q1(Mar) $0.40 $0.48-0.56 Jos. A. Bank JOSB Q1(Apr) $0.28 "minimum of $0.34" IXYS Corp SYXI Q4(Mar) $0.03 Revenues slightly under $54 mln, estimate $49.5 mln Onyx Software ONXS Q1(Mar) ($0.04) Breakeven on revenues of $13.8 mln, consensus $12.9 mln , 06-Apr-04 Quanex Corp NX Q2(Apr) $0.39 $0.55-0.65 TranSwitch TXCC Q1(Mar) ($0.19) Revenues of $7.5-8.0 mln, estimate $6.5 mln Paradyne PDYN Q1(Mar) ($0.04) Loss of $0.01 to break-even, revenues of $22.0 mln, estimate $20.0 mln Tu,pperware TUP Q1(Mar) $0.14 $0.19-0.22, ex items; Y04 EPS $1.23-1.33, est $1.13 Adaptec ADPT Q4(Mar) $0.04 $0.05-0.06; Revs $121 mln Advanced Power APTI Q1(Mar) $0.01 "Above high end" of Breakeven-0.02; Expect revs "above upper end " of $13.2-13.8 mln Cummins CMI Q1(Mar) $0.47 $0.65-0.75, Y04 $4.00-4.20, consensus $3.66 Black & Decker BDK Q1(Mar) $0.69 $0.90-0.93 A,ndrew Corp ANDW Q2(Mar) $0.06 $0.09-0.11 (ex items), revs of $440-450 mln, est $366.9 mln Gabelli Asset Mgmt GBL Q1(Mar) $0.47 $0.50-0.52 Midway Games MWY Q1(Mar) ($0.32) Revenues of approximately $18 mln, consensus $12.67 mln 05-Apr-04 ,Microtek MTMD Q1(Mar) $0.05 Revenues of $28.8 mln, consensus $27.2 mln ScanSource SCSC Q3(Mar) $0.53 Revenues of $288-295 mln, consensus $273.65 mln First Data FDC Y04(Dec) $2.14 $2.35 ACE Cash Express AACE Q3(Mar) $0.63 $0.70-0.72 CIGNA CI Q1(Mar) $1.32 $1.75-1.95 , 02-Apr-04 Zimmer Hldgs ZMH Q1(Mar) $0.48 To exceed $0.49; revs to exceed $740 mln, est $702 mln 01-Apr-04 Sierra Wireless SWIR Q1(Mar) $0.06 $0.12; Revs over $40 mln,, est $36.5 mln Metrologic Inst MTLG Q1(Mar) $0.18 Prelim Revs $39.6 mln, est $39.2 mln Silicon Image SIMG Q1(Mar) $0.04 Revs $34.6-35.5 mln, est $32.9 mln MSC Industrial MSM Q3(May) $0.27 $0.29-0.31 on revenues of $248-255 mln, consensus $247 mln MDC Holdings MDC Q1(Mar) $1.44 Exceed $1.44 Jack In The Box JBX Q2(Mar) $0.28 $0.42-0.44 , 31-Mar-04 American Eagle AEOS Q1(Apr) $0.16 $0.25-0.30 American Eagle AEOS Q1(Apr) $0.16 $0.25-0.30 SABRE Hldgs TSG Q1(Mar) $0.25 $0.32-0.35 (ex items), Y04 $1.25-1.35 (ex items), consensus $1.17 Best Buy BBY Q1(May) $0.28 $0.30-0.35, for Y04 EPS of $2.,80-2.93, consensus $2.80 PF Chang's PFCB Q1(Mar) $0.28 Pre-announces revenues of $169.8 mln, consensus $168.7 mln 30-Mar-04 Timken TKR Q1(Mar) $0.18 $0.25-0.30; Y04 EPS $1.00-1.10, est $0.99 O,N Semiconductor ONNN Q1(Mar) ($0.02) Revs $300.8 mln, est $293.5 mln PepsiCo PEP Q1(Mar) $0.44 $0.46, Y04 $2.27-2.29, consensus $2.29 Autodesk ADSK Q1(Apr) $0.20 Pro forma EPS of $0.27-0.32 on revenues of $265-275 mln, consensus $243.5 mln Silicon Storage SSTI Q1(Mar) $0.09 $0.10-0.14 on revenues of $100-104 mln, consensus $98 mln , 29-Mar-04 California Pizza CPKI Q1(Mar) $0.18 $0.19-0.20; Prelim Revs $98.6 mln,est $95.6 mln FMC Corp FMC Q1(Mar) $0.08 $0.17 Gevity GVHR Y04(Dec) $0.95 $0.98-1.10 , 26-Mar-04 THQ Inc THQI Q4(Mar) $0.07 $0.12 on revenues of $110 mln, consensus $91 mln 25-Mar-04 Georgia Gulf GGC Q1(Mar) $0.37 $0.50 ,Finish Line FINL Y05(Feb) $2.28 $2.29-2.36 Cognos Inc COGN Q1(May) $0.19 $0.19-0.20; for Y05 sees $1.18, consensus $1.13 Activision ATVI Q4(Mar) ($0.01) $0.01, revenues of $155 mln, estimate $126.9 mln Avon Products AVP Q1(Mar) $0.51 $0.59, for Y04 sees $3.18-3.20, consensus $3.13 , 24-Mar-04 Ameristar Casinos ASCA Q1(Mar) $0.45 Approximately $0.57 Vans VANS Q4(May) ($0.16) Base bus Loss of $0.11-0.13, for Y04 $0.80-0.82, consensus is $0.64 V.F. Corp VFC Q1(Mar) $0.84 Approx $0.87, revenues at high end of $1.35-1.38 bln, estimate $1.36 bln , 23-Mar-04 Charlotte Russe CHIC Q2(Mar) ($0.07) Loss of $0.02 to breakeven West Marine WMAR Q1(Mar) ($0.17) Loss of $0.14-0.16; Revs $131-133 mln, est $129 mln Steel Dynamics STLD Q1(Mar) $0.35 $0.50-0.60 Eastman Chem EMN Q1(Mar) $0.24 High end of $0.22-0.30 , 22-Mar-04 Limited LTD Q1(Apr) $0.09 $0.09-0.11 Carnival Corp CCL Q2(May) $0.30 $0.34-0.36 19-Mar-04 Ste,el Tech STTX Q2(Mar) $0.35 $0.60-0.65, revenues of $175.0 mln, estimate $143.2 mln 18-Mar-04 Chattem CHTT Q2(May) $0.42 $0.42-0.44, for Y04 sees $1.48-1.54, consensus $1.46 Cooper Industries CBE Q1(Mar) $0.72 $0.75-0.80, for Y04 see,s high-end of $3.15-3.30, consensus $3.29 Masco MAS Q1(Mar) $0.38 $0.42-0.44, ex items Barnes & Noble BKS Q1(Apr) $0.00 $0.09-0.14 Fortune Brands FO Q1(Mar) $0.79 Above $0.81 Stein Mart SMRT Q1(Apr) $0.08 $0.15-0.17 Intermagnetics IMGC Y04(May) $0.88 $0.90-0.92, ex items; Revs $160 mln, est $160.4 mln Entegris ENTG Q2(Feb) $0.05 Revenues of $88-89.6 mln, consensus $83.3 mln , Up to Top

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (41074)	4/18/2004 3:23:41 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70330

Bubble Lives on at Broadcom, Where Options Still Rain Down Published: April 18, 2004 GRETCHEN MORGENSON UST when you thought you had seen the most outrageous transfer of shareholder wealth to executives through stock options, along comes a company that tops them all. The Broadcom Corporation, a maker of integrated circuits for broadband digital data transmission, went public during the bubble in the late 1990's. The bubble has never burst for Broadcom management, judging from the option plan that the company wants shareholders to approve at its meeting on April 29.Your first clue that stock options play a leading role at Broadcom is that its board has a committee devoted to them. Members of the option committee are Alan E. Ross, the company's president and chief executive; Henry Samueli, a company co-founder; and Werner F. Wolfen, president of Capri Investments, an investment advisory firm. Advertisement Proving just how serious its work is, the option committee met 25 times in fiscal 2003; the full Broadcom board held 18 meetings in that same time. Broadcom shareholders are being asked to vote on a company proposal to increase by 12 million the number of shares authorized for grants under its 1998 stock incentive plan. In addition, a "yes" vote will expand the types of stock awards that the company can offer executives and employees, as well as grant the compensation committee the right to reprice underwater options at any time. This objectionable repricing practice removes the risk for executives and employees that outside shareholders incur when their stock falls. Glass Lewis & Company, an institutional advisory firm in San Francisco, is urging shareholders to vote against the option plan because of its monster price tag. The plan's cost is equal to 12.2 percent of Broadcom's enterprise value, Glass Lewis said, and would dilute existing shareholders' interests by 3.7 percent if put in place. Had the proposed plan been in place last year, it would have cost shareholders an amount equal to about 75 percent of the company's revenue, the firm said. Broadcom lost almost $1 billion in 2003. Its retained earnings totaled a negative $6.7 billion at year-end. Under the terms of the new plan, Broadcom's compensation committee can select from certain performance goals before stock awards are to be vested. Many companies use a few criteria, like sales or earnings growth. But Broadcom gives its compensation committee no fewer than 14 to consider. The criteria are a mouthful: "return on total shareholder equity; earnings per share; net income, before or after taxes, or operating income; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or operating income before depreciation and amortization; sales or revenue targets; return on assets, capital or investment; cash flow; market share; cost reduction goals; budget comparisons; implementation or completion of projects or processes strategic or critical to our business operations; measures of customer satisfaction; any combination of, or a specified increase in, any of the foregoing; and the formation of joint ventures, research and development collaborations, marketing or customer service collaborations, or the completion of other corporate transactions intended to enhance our revenue or profitability or expand our customer base." The list gives management a lot of wiggle room. Why not a performance hurdle based on the sun rising in the east? OVER all, Broadcom's executive compensation receives a failing grade from Glass Lewis because the company paid its top five officers more than its peer companies even as it performed worse than they did. Glass Lewis also gives Broadcom demerits for allowing employees to exchange underwater options - those with exercise prices above the current market price - for new, lower-priced versions in 2001 and again in 2003. The 2003 repricing allowed the exchange of 20 million options, with an average price of $51, for 18 million options at about $35, giving Broadcom insiders a windfall of $250 million by Glass Lewis's figuring. Outside shareholders weren't so lucky. Glass Lewis is advising shareholders to withhold their votes for Broadcom's four compensation committee members. They are George L. Farinsky, a retired consultant; John E. Major, founder of MTSG, a consulting and investment company; Robert E. Switz, president of ADC Telecommunications; and Mr. Wolfen. Broadcom directors are among the highest-paid in the country, Glass Lewis reckoned; they receive $450,000 a year in options and cash and an additional 100,000 options granted every four years that would be worth about $2.5 million if awarded today. The average director at companies of similar size received $140,000 a year, the firm said. There is one bit of restraint in the Broadcom option plan: no participant may receive awards for more than six million shares. "The company and its insiders have committed nearly every obnoxious act imaginable," Greg Taxin, chief executive of Glass Lewis, said. "They have overpaid the board and executives and enriched employees with an options exchange after trashing the stock. The employee option plan grants equal nearly 75 percent of the revenue of the business, and the board has retained the express right to reprice options in the event that the stock does not go up. The founders retain voting control despite raising - and losing - billions of dollars from the investing public." Broadcom did not return repeated phone calls requesting comment. Among the largest shareholders at Broadcom are Alliance Capital Management, with a 13.3 percent stake; Capital Research and Management, which runs the American Funds, with 6.6 percent of the shares outstanding; and Fidelity, with 2.1 percent. It will be interesting to see how these shareholders vote on Broadcom's option plan. Over the last year, Broadcom's shares have soared, along with those of many technology companies. But that is no reason for shareholders to lie down for this option steamroller. Vote no. And vote often. nytimes.com