Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (14896)	4/17/2004 11:46:11 AM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 207049

Nice comments Robert...thanks as always for your inputs. You said: "Certainly the Naz's performance is so stinky that shorts have to feel pretty smart.I'm hoping they feel so good that they get greedy and double up - their strategy so far is looking real good, in a relative way.The one snafu to it all, is that a retest on the March 24 low @ the Naz is still far from confirmed- the low is 85.2 points away." Me thinks that the most important data is the missing data; and that leads straight to the data of the market that shows all this activity occurring against a shrunken supply and a deeper pool of money. The retail shorts I know who are not just scalping day trades, have little or no understanding of what all this means. Therefore I am locked and loaded where the most agregious conditions exist. This past week we saw an outright Blowup of SSPI, IMO that was related to the short scams in Canada, where there has been an institutional rip off of small cap investors going on forever....only corrected by recent SEC Regs....but they have not gone far enough, the retail shorts are the same as us retail longs, accounts to be churned. Supply is a relative constant, demand is far more difficult to get a handle on, and it allows systems to be created which exploit the present, everyday we are up against these systems, some good some bad. Learn to stalk the systems. Good trading to you. Thanks for all the thread input, including you Nick....

To: robert b furman who wrote (14896)	4/17/2004 4:18:04 PM
From: Runomo™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207049

Hi Bob, There is no dread in asking a question bro..... I am just a student of the market like many here and has much to learn and I really prefer to keep things very simple.... The first thing to take note of with regard to the NYSE summation is the record historic time it has stayed above the zero line.....the zero line is the liquidity demarcation line, in other words when the summation is above the zero line it usually means there is sufficient liquidity in the system and money is flowing into the market. Conversely the reverse is also true.... stockcharts.com[w,a]dellynay[d19980417,20040417][pa]&pref=G "Although the oscillator has gone deeply negative ,the index has not yet bottomed or started it sideways stall" Generally price and mcosi bottoms come first before the summation finds a bottom...Last year you'll note the summation continued to decline an additional 200 points while the NYSE and the mcosi were already on the upturn...so what we should expect now is a deceleration of the rate of the summation decline into the sideways stall that you mentioned.... "Does this time not need triple successive new lows to signal the reversal." The NYSE and Naz mcosi already made a beautiful complex bottom which had the works going for it....i.e positive divergences, but the new wrinkle this time around was the sudden rise in interest rates which precipitated a sharp final decline...the thing to keep in mind is that both the NYSE and Naz mcosi have spent plenty and sufficient time below their zero line to support another large summation advance to the upside. "That begs the question are we thru it all yet?" The market message is mixed...we have strong NYSE market which BTW is the primary market and a weak Naz market which I know is our own little Babe but is a secondary market after all...the caution comes from the present Naz summation configuration: stockcharts.com As you can see the Naz summation went below it's zero line in March.... found a nice bottom and has rallied strongly off that March bottom but remains short of it's zero line...I know there has been quite a bit of crash talk going on lately and I suspect it's because those TA analysts understand that the strongest market declines usually come from the summation failing at the zero line after a rally from below.... So the Naz task now is to move decisively above it's summation zero line before we are certain that this correction has run it's course...Other TA suggests that the Naz will eventually accomplish this task...I hope this answered some of your questions, cheers, Mo