To: philv who wrote (20682 ) 4/17/2004 8:58:34 PM From: sea_urchin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 80963 > another big round of gold selling by central banks. France & Germany both want to raise cash. Doesn't look positive for gold. I think you know my opinion on gold. I'm certainly no goldbug who is married to it, worships it, dreams about it and longs for the day when the "gold standard" returns at $10,000/oz. I believe one has to take a "view" --- in other words, something less than a lifetime. As I see it, for the past 20+ years the gold price has moved in fairly regular cycles and I have tried to "time" them to enable an investment entry at a fairly low price and an exit at a fairly high one. At the moment, I think the price is high and I don't have any gold investments, but this has a lot to do with my situation in SA with the strong rand and high labor costs which have knocked Hell out of the gold mines and therefore SA gold shares have been unattractive. As far as the world gold price is concerned, I think that has to do with the game of "chicken" which the US is playing with the other countries. In other words, is the USD going to devalue another 20%+ or isn't it? Is the debt something to think about or isn't it? If it is, then the Euro, Yen and gold holders will have to hang on some more knowing that when the "big" day comes to sell they will have to find someone to buy in a buyers market, when everyone is selling. On the other hand, if US interest rates are rising and the USD is firming up from here, the Euro, Yen and gold could all be overpriced right now. And I'm not even talking about the new "reserve" currency --- the rand which, as I see it, is at least 30% too high already. > Sell all assets, raise cash. That is the way it is today everywhere. After they are gone, then what? Yes, that's what it is. Problem is the same everywhere where everyone is living beyond their means. No-one wants to work. No-one wants to save. Everyone wants the "good" life. Maybe in the East it's different. I can't say. > It seems to me that socialism is dead, and governments are increasingly being marginalized by big business and international agreements. I agree. Fascism everywhere, where governments are in the pockets of big business. Except in SA, where business is plundered to finance the "welfare state" for well-to-do African civil servants and their "comrades". > This is the face of the New World Order. I suppose it could be worse. At least we can still talk about it. Sometimes even make a joke.