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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (12128)4/18/2004 11:51:07 AM
From: orkrious  Respond to of 110194
 
Rather, we think the majority is wrong because it is not anticipating high-enough interest rates. In other words, interest rates are likely to move much higher over the coming 12 months than most people currently expect.


russ, what does saville say about gold stocks? a few months ago he though they would make new highs, then embark on a months-long correction. they didn't make new highs. I would guess his correction is well upon us.

tia



To: russwinter who wrote (12128)4/18/2004 12:36:57 PM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I Would Have Bet Bond Shorts to Be Emboldened...

...by last week's numbers, and to have pushed more of their chips across the table.

We could be set up here for a surprise snap-back in the TNX yield towards 4.00%.

Great numbers from you and Saville, btw.



To: russwinter who wrote (12128)4/18/2004 1:18:48 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 110194
 
I also agree with those comments. Looks like the 10-year bond yield will drop to 4.2% or so before starting up again. Major support at 4.4% probably will betaken out during the next selloff IMHO.