Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4599)	4/18/2004 11:59:01 PM
From: TH	Respond to of 116555

CR, I think that is very possible, as least in the near term. I am pretty surprised that bit of information was shared, and in the context of support for the election. All war is based on deception, but I guess Bush was sleeping during that chapter. As already posted on another SI thread (can't remember which one) that the interview is dollar negative. I think the "chilling aspects" are going to be discussed in great detail when the book is released. TH

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4599)	4/19/2004 1:21:08 AM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 116555

That's a Great Piece of Gossip on Which to go Long Oil. Might get a nice little shake-out--just enough to run oil right back, up towards 40.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4599)	4/19/2004 12:07:38 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 116555

Bandar is practically a member of the family--they call him Bandar Bush. he has vacationed with them and everything. whatever the hell they say on 60 Minutes is the sort of thing i would fade. i cannot imagine that the unofficial Ambassador and the world's most important Go-Between for Saudi Arabia and the United States is going to trumpet his true intentions on national TV months in advance. am wondering if oil prices will drop tomorrow? the front-month contract dropped about 9 cents after the show, with the next four or five contracts dropping 18 cents. who knows if it was even related. obviously the market doesn't care today! crude is printing 38.10 where are all of these oodles of barrels the Saudis keep threatening to dump? i thought they wanted a "trading range" of 22 to 28 USD. but then they blamed it on the dollar falling... and then when that wasn't convincing enough, they blamed the speculators. SA Oil Minister claims oil is overpriced by $5 due to daytraders. well, why don't they just dump 3 million bpd extra on the market and quell everybody's fears? if this is a friend's idea of helping Bush, then Mr. Shrub don't need any enemies! the 15yr price high in crude is hurting the economy in the here and now. waiting till August or something to open the valves is like dousing somebody with napalm and then giving them an ice cream sundae before they croak. to me, the Occam's Razor explanation is that the Saudis are having difficulty bringing this so-called extra capacity online. there is speculation by Campbell that Ghawar, which has historically accounted for half of SA's production, may be down to 27Gb or so. not good! btw, you can check the oil futures (delayed) here: sites2.barchart.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4599)	4/19/2004 12:49:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

IMF to say US will hike but asks Europe to cut ================================================ US warned to prepare for interest rate rises By Andrew Balls in Washington and Javier Blas in London Published: April 18 2004 22:00 \| Last Updated: April 18 2004 22:00 The US Federal Reserve must prepare the world economy for higher interest rates to "avoid financial market disruption both domestically and abroad", the International Monetary Fund will warn this week. But the IMF repeats its advice that the European Central Bank should consider cutting rates owing to the eurozone's poor economic performance. Japan's recovery, the IMF says, has continued to "substantially exceed expectations". However, "a key question is whether Japan's recovery can be sustained or whether, as with earlier recoveries in the post-bubble period, it will prove to be another false dawn". Surging growth in China has helped to boost regional growth, it adds, but "signs of incipient overheating" call for tighter macroeconomic policy. This risk means "it remains in China' s interest to move gradually to greater exchange rate flexibility". The IMF's World Economic Outlook, to be published on Wednesday, will coincide with eagerly awaited testimony by Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, on the US economy. While noting that the Fed has "leeway to maintain a very accommodative monetary stance", the IMF warns that "the ground should continue to be prepared for future monetary tightening", given the "buoyant short-term outlook and the need to avoid financial market disruption both domestically and abroad". A draft of the main chapter of the report has been obtained by Expansion, the Financial Times's Spanish sister paper. It was prepared before data released for March showed strong employment growth and a jump in US consumer price inflation. Following these reports, investors are pricing in a quarter-point rise in the Federal funds rates by the time of the Fed's August meeting. The funds rate currently stands at 1 per cent. Fed-watchers say attention may focus on whether Mr Greenspan's testimony continues to stress that the central bank will remain "patient" in raising rates, and on any guidance as to how quickly the Fed will want to return to a more neutral footing once it starts to tighten. The IMF says: "A key challenge for central banks will be to communicate their intentions as clearly as possible to the markets, thereby reducing the risk of abrupt changes in expectat ions later on." Rising US rates could trigger severe difficulties in emerging markets, it warns. In March, the IMF forecast global growth of 4.6 per cent in 2004 and 4.4 per cent in 2005. Global growth this year has been revised upward by half a point compared with the IMF's forecast in September last year. Stronger data over the past month may encourage the IMF to increase some country growth forecasts. The IMF's growth forecasts for the US and Japan have been revised upwards since September. The US is forecast to grow by 4.6 per cent this year and by 3.9 per cent in 2005. Japan is forecast to grow by 3.2 per cent this year and by 1.7 per cent in 2005. There is little change for the eurozone, which is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent in 2005. As well as tighter monetary policy in the US and possibly lower interest rates in Europe, the IMF calls for fiscal consolidation in the US, structural reforms in Japan and Europe to promote growth and "a gradual shift toward more exchange rate flexibility in most of emerging Asia" to aid the adjustment of global current account imbalances.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4599)	4/19/2004 1:11:13 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I'm not so sure Saudis still like Shrub and will keep their word.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4599)	4/19/2004 3:48:17 PM
From: ThirdEye	Respond to of 116555

If this scenario plays out as Woorward suggests, will it be viewed as the equivalent of Bush accepting a campaign contribution from the Saudis, or like the Chinese funneling contributions to Clinton's campaign, or even equivalent to a "terrorist attack" with the intent of influencing a US election? I mean, foreign influence is foreign influence, right? <<gg>> Or maybe these events never happened. Woodward made it all up. If so, he is one clever dude. The Saudis are damned if they do and damned if they don't.