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To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 9:56:50 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Intel, Taser Tell Congress Stock Options Needed to Spur Hiring
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Taser International Inc. Chairman Phillips Smith says a new government rule will limit his stun-gun company's ability to use stock options the way Bill Gates did to build Microsoft Corp. and Andy Grove has at Intel Corp.

Taser, Intel and Cisco Systems Inc. are among companies urging Congress to pass legislation to overturn a Financial Accounting Standards Board rule that treats stock options as an expense starting next year. The requirement would have erased a third of Scottsdale, Arizona-based Taser's $4.5 million profit in 2003 and limited the company's ability to hire, Smith said.

``It penalizes exactly the people you don't want to penalize,'' Smith, 66, said in an interview.

The American Electronics Association, representing 3,000 companies, has helped persuade almost half of the members of the House Committee on Financial Services to oppose the FASB rule. Lawmakers such as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, say they are balancing the threat to job creation against demand for greater detail on costs and the effect on earnings from investors such as billionaire Warren Buffett and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

``This is going to be lobbying 101,'' said John Palafoutas, 58, head of domestic policy for the American Electronics Association. Lawmakers ``are sitting around screaming and almost in hysteria over offshoring, and here they are with this provision making the cost of American labor even higher.''

Microsoft, Intel

Companies such as Microsoft and Intel, boosted by their rising stock prices, were able to use stock options to offer employees pay beyond the cash means of their companies.

Options give employees the right to buy company stock at a set price within a specified period. When a company's shares rise, employees can purchase stock with the options at the set price and sell at the higher market price.

Intel Chairman Grove, 67, said Oct. 9 that U.S. companies need a rule requiring expensing of options ``like we need a hole in the head.''

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Buffett says options obscure a transfer of wealth from shareholders to employees.

``It is vital that we earn back the trust of the American public,'' Buffett, 73, said last year in his company's annual letter to shareholders.

Congressional opponents of expensing options, including Pelosi, 64, from San Francisco, and Representative Stephen Lynch, 49, a Boston Democrat, say stock options help start-up companies recruit and retain good workers.

Top Executives

House Capital Markets Subcommittee Chairman Richard Baker, 55, a Republican from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is sponsoring a bill that would require only the top five executives of large companies such as Intel to expense options and exempt small- and medium-sized businesses. Of the 47 members of Baker's subcommittee, 27 support the bill, according to their staffs.

In the full House Financial Services committee, which would be the last hurdle to bringing the bill to a vote before all members of Congress, 34 of the 70 members support the legislation, according to their staffs.

The technology companies are winning the policy debate, Prudential Securities political analyst Charles Gabriel said.

``Members from both parties continue to pander to the tech mavens,'' Gabriel said. ``This bill should pass -- perhaps surprisingly, in an environment where gridlock is laying waste to other, similarly important measures -- simply because of the continuing political allure of Silicon Valley.''

50-50 Odds

Lobbyists for Taser and Intel say the odds of blocking the FASB rule are no better than 50-50. Legislation must pass both the House and Senate and be signed by the president.

``I would not support that legislation,'' Senate Banking Chairman Richard Shelby, 69, a Republican from Alabama, said in an April 8 interview. ``FASB is the body that should make those decisions. We are not in the accounting business.''

A similar bill in the Senate introduced by Wyoming Republican Mike Enzi, 60, has 16 co-sponsors, including both senators from California, Democrats Barbara Boxer, 63, and Dianne Feinstein, 70.

Paul Volcker, 76, former Federal Reserve chairman who is now head of the International Accounting Standards Committee, and FASB Chairman Robert Herz will go before the Senate's governmental affairs committee Tuesday. Boxer and National Venture Capital Association President Mark Heesen will be there in opposition.

``These guys have never started a high-tech enterprise,'' said Smith, whose 320,337 shares of Taser are worth $36.6 million based on the company's closing price on Friday of $114.10. ``They've never operated a company with options.''

Enron

FASB, a self-regulatory board, wrote the rule as concern about corporate governance peaked following the 2001 collapse of Enron Corp., which inflated earnings by hiding losses in affiliated partnerships. Enron had the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history by debt, listing $107 billion in assets and $31 billion in debt.

Former Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay, 62, exercised $180.3 million of options from 1998 to the end of 2000, and former Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Skilling, 50, got $111.7 million from options in that period, according to company filings.

Supporting FASB

Republican Representative Paul Gillmor of Ohio is circulating a letter among colleagues ahead of a House Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing Wednesday, urging support of the FASB rule and citing accounting scandals at Enron and Tyco International Ltd. Former Tyco Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kozlowski and his top lieutenant Mark Swartz are charged with looting Tyco of $600 million and taking unauthorized bonuses and loans.

At least 113 of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have agreed to begin treating options as an expense, according to Bear Stearns Cos. S&P estimates the FASB rule, issued last month and set to take effect next year, would cut earnings per share for the S&P 500 by 7.4 percent this year.

Palafoutas's group, working with the National Venture Capital Association and the CapNet technology-industry group, is now going after members such as Representative Barney Frank, 64, the ranking Democrat on the full House Financial Services Committee.

`Torn'

``I'm torn,'' said Frank, who represents a Massachusetts district southwest of Boston, in an interview. ``The high-tech people are an important group. There are some questions I'm still wrestling with.''

Frank's district includes Taunton, Massachusetts, home to semiconductor-materials maker Kopin Corp. Kopin's net loss would have been $9.3 million greater in 2003 had the company expensed options under the fair-value based method.

``We don't like the rule,'' Kopin Chief Financial Officer Richard Sneider said in an interview. ``It has a lot of problems on a lot of fronts.''

Kopin gives options to all its 400-plus employees and would probably modify the program if the rule takes effect. Other plans don't ``have the same type of bang for the buck,'' Sneider said.

About 23 percent of corporate workers in the U.S. participate in stock-option plans, according to the General Social Survey by the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center.

Taser granted 3.56 million options to employees through last year at an average strike price of $3.65. With the shares trading above $114, 28 of the 42 people at the company's head office are millionaires, with no cost to the company, Smith said. Without the shares, 20 of those millionaires would have earned an average $40,000 a year.

Santa Clara, California-based Intel, which gives options to most of its 80,000 employees, says larger companies also depend on them as an incentive for employees to perform.

`Part of Our Culture'

``It is part of our culture,'' Intel spokesman Bill Calder said. ``They've been very effective at enabling the company to attract and retain talent.''

Intel's profit would have fallen by 18 percent, or $991 million, in 2003 if it had followed the FASB rule, according to its annual report.

Democratic presidential candidate and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, 60, has made job creation one of his top campaign issues. President George W. Bush, 57, is focusing on retraining to help unemployed people find new jobs and on extending tax cuts aimed at boosting economic growth and job creation.

Kerry Supports Expensing

Kerry supports treating options as an expense, according to an editorial he wrote in the San Jose Mercury News last year. Yet he opposes the use of some of the valuation methods proposed by FASB, citing their effect on the earnings of Intel and Cisco.

Securities & Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson, 72, has said he supports treating options as an expense. The SEC hasn't taken a formal position on the FASB rule or the opposing bill in Congress, a spokesman said.

The Bush administration believes stock options ``encourage innovation and competitiveness,'' Treasury Department spokeswoman Anne Womack-Kolton said. Still ``it is important for shareholders to have the transparency to make informed decisions. We have confidence that Chairman Donaldson will find a solution that weighs both sides.''

Microsoft went the other way, announcing it would stop granting stock options and would start recording costs for old awards. Gates, 48, chairman and chief software architect, never took stock options himself, according to a July 8 company release.

International Standard

The new rule from FASB would bring the U.S. in line with the London-based International Accounting Standards Board.

``Since stock options are compensation and they have a value and a cost, they should be expensed,'' said Ann Yerger, deputy director of the Council of Institutional Investors, a group of more than 140 pension funds with $3 trillion in investments.

Yerger said efforts to block the FASB rule reflect an interest to protect companies rather than investors.

Genentech Inc., the world's second-biggest biotechnology company behind Amgen Inc., disagrees, saying the bigger effect of the FASB rule would be to stunt the growth of small and mid-sized companies or to deter the startup of new ones who may only have stock options to offer as a recruitment incentive.

``Some of the methodology that they're proposing is very likely to significantly overstate the value of employee stock options,'' Genentech Chief Financial Officer Lou Lavigne said. Bills in the House and Senate ``recognize the importance of stock options in the environment of creating new companies and building industries.''

Variety of Formulas

FASB's rule allows companies to use a variety of formulas to calculate option values, including the binomial or Black-Scholes models. They use factors such as interest rates, stock-price volatility and vesting periods to calculate values.

Palafoutas and other lobbyists are attacking these methods, saying they will create greater inaccuracies in financial reporting. Supporters such as Pelosi have picked up on those arguments as reasons for blocking the rule. If successful, it would be at least the second time FASB has been turned away by Congress on the options expensing issue.

In 1994, Congress forced FASB to back down from a rule that would have required expensing by threatening to take away its authority to set U.S. accounting standards. Calls to strengthen standards for corporate governance have helped the board.

``This time around, the lobbyists are trying to be a little smarter,'' said Dennis Beresford, a former FASB chairman and a University of Georgia accounting professor. ``Trying to close down the FASB altogether is not likely to be successful. They're doing more of what I'd call a smart bomb or a surgical strike.''

Proponents of the rule will be helped by the fact that at least 483 companies have either adopted or plan to adopt the rules on their own, according to Bear Stearns. Those that have haven't had ``any devastating effects,'' Beresford said.

Yet Taser's Smith argues the FASB rule won't punish companies like Microsoft, which with $58.2 billion in cash, can afford the change. It is cash-starved startup companies like Microsoft circa 1975 or Taser today that feel the pain and will stop hiring workers just as monthly job growth is accelerating. The U.S added 308,000 jobs last month, the most in four years.

``I'd be loath to start disassembling the engine,'' Smith said. ``We need to create jobs.''

quote.bloomberg.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 9:59:06 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
From today's Gulf News.

UAE to lift oil capacity by nearly 1m bpd

By Nadim Kawach

Bureau Chief

Abu Dhabi: The UAE is pushing ahead with huge projects to lift its oil output capacity by nearly one million barrels a day to maintain its position as one of the biggest oil producers.

Official figures showed the country, which has the third largest crude reserves in the world, has invested at least $25 billion in major projects over the past 10 years in a bid to maintain its present capacity and expand production to meet growing global demand from countries such as China.

The UAE controls around 97.8 billion barrels of proven crude resources but actual reserves could be double that level if advanced extraction technology is employed, according to the yearbook for 2004 by the Ministry of Information and Culture, which cited statistics by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, ADNOC and other oil companies.

"Oil and gas investments over the past decade have exceeded $25 billion. The UAE plans to increase sustainable oil production capacity to 3.58 million barrels a day by 2006 from the current 2.63 million bpd," said the report ahead of its official launch.

"A crucial element in this plan is the development of Upper Zakum field from its present level of 550,000 bpd to 1.2 million bpd and ADCO's onshore development at Bab and other fields due to add 200,000 bpd, bring the combined capacity of these fields to around 460,000 bpd.

"In addition, development work at the Bu Hasa field, due for completion in 2006, is planned to increase production from 550,000 to 730,000 bpd."

The report gave no figures for the prospective investment into those ventures but oil industry sources said at least $2.5 billion would have to be pumped every year.

The UAE has embarked on a major expansion programme in its oil and gas sector to face growing global demand and meet a steady increase in gas needs by its main Asian clients.

Other Gulf states are also expanding their oil output capacity as they are expected to meet the bulk of the increase in global consumption in the medium and long terms when other supply sources would have sharply receded or depleted.

At an average production of around 2.5 million bpd, the UAE's recoverable oil resources could last nearly 105 years, said the report.



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 10:07:57 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
EU's Prodi says Italy, Germany not not yet seeing economic recovery
Monday, April 19, 2004 1:31:42 PM

ROME (AFX) - European Commission president Romano Prodi said that Germany and Italy have not yet witnessed an economic recovery, while growth in the EU remains weak

During a meeting in Rome with leaders of Italy's centre-left opposition, Prodi said the economic recovery in the EU has been "shy and inferior to the rest of the world" in the past months

He said "Europe is split into three categories: a group of countries with growth of more than 3 pct, a group of countries growing about 1.5-2.0 pct, and finally Germany and Italy whose recovery is still non-existent"

Prodi is a former left-wing prime minister who is set to return to Italian politics once his mandate in Brussels ends in November

fxstreet.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 10:11:50 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Germany's Clement favours selling gold reserves to fund research, education

BERLIN (AFX) - German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clement said he is in favour of selling some of the country's gold reserves and investing the proceeds in research and education. He said about 250 mln eur should be invested annually in research and education.

Former Bundesbank president Ernst Welteke had earlier submitted a proposal to parliament to put all the money from any sale of gold reserves in an interest-bearing fund and to use the interest to promote research and education. Under Germany's current laws, 3.5 bln eur of money raised from any gold reserves sale would go to the federal government budget, with any excess being used to pay debts inherited from the East German state.

fxstreet.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 10:17:30 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
German industry body cuts GDP growth forecast for 2004
Monday, April 19, 2004 11:07:45 AM

BERLIN (AFX) - The Association of German Industry (BDI) has cut its 2004 GDP growth forecast to 1.5-1.7 pct from 2.0 pct, citing uncertainties surrounding the government's economic and social reforms

"The risks over the last three months have increased," Reinhard Kudiss, a senior economist at BDI said

"Exports are still doing well, but have not yet had a positive effect on the domestic market. Confidence among companies and consumers still remains weak over worries about the ongoing debate of the government's reforms," he added

Despite the BDI's cut, economy minister Wolfgang Clement said he still expects the German economy to grow by 1.5-2.0 pct this year

fxstreet.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 10:23:46 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. leading economic indicators point to more growth
Monday, April 19, 2004 3:17:27 PM

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in March, as expected, the Conference Board reported Monday

"Economic growth in the first quarter was strong and the second quarter may be as good or better," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the board. Economists expected the 0.3 percent gain, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. The index was flat in February. In March, six of the 10 leading indicators improved: vendor performance, money supply, jobless claims, building permits, orders for consumer goods and consumer expectations

Four indicators -- interest rate spreads, stock prices, manufacturing hours and core capital goods orders -- declined in March

Over the past six months, seven of the 10 indicators have improved. "The current growth rate of the leading index is signaling a continuation of relatively strong economic growth in the near term," the board said. In March, the coincident index rose 0.2 percent, led by the rise in payrolls. The lagging index fell 0.1 percent

The leading index report "is useful because it collapses everything in about the economy into one simple number," said Robert Brusca, chief economist for Fact and Opinion Economics. "It is useless for the same reason." Most of the data in the report has been released previously; some of the data were estimated until final government data are released

fxstreet.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 10:48:38 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Global: Asia Needs a New Consumer

Stephen Roach (New York)

An unbalanced global economy has come to rely on two major sources of growth — the Chinese producer on the supply side of the equation and the American consumer on the demand side. This is not a recipe for sustainable global growth, in my view. An overheated Chinese economy now faces the imperatives of a slowdown. And overly extended American consumers face the need for a sobering adjustment of their own. This poses a profound challenge for Asia’s externally led growth paradigm: Unless the region uncovers a new source of autonomous domestic demand, it may well be confronted with a serious challenge to its growth potential in the years ahead.

The Asian consumer is largely a myth, in my view. The small ASEAN economies of Thailand and Indonesia are possibly exceptions, but these countries collectively account for only 7% of pan-Asian GDP (as measured on a purchasing-power-parity basis). The biggest countries in the region — especially Japan, China, India, and Korea, which collectively make up 82% of pan-regional GDP — all suffer from chronic weakness in private consumption. That’s especially true of Japan — the newest recovery hope in Asia. While the Japanese economy accelerated to a 4.5% growth pace in the second half of 2003 and seems to be holding near that solid clip in early 2004, the Japanese consumer has been a significant laggard in this turnaround. Private consumption growth held at 1% in the second half of last year, and our Japan team looks for consumer spending growth to average only 1.4% over the 2003-04 period, less than half the 3.2% pace of real GDP growth they forecast over this same interval. The combination of high unemployment, structurally high underemployment, hesitant wage increases, and a now-depressed personal saving rate underscores a lingering sense of job and income insecurity that is likely to crimp the Japanese consumer for years to come. There can be no mistaking the pent-up demand of the nation’s long-stagnant consuming public. But in a lingering deflationary climate, the odds are low that such a shortfall will be recouped in short order.

Nor does the Chinese consumer qualify as a new Asian powerhouse. As Andy Xie has noted, the consumption share of Chinese GDP fell to a record low of 54% in 2003 — down markedly from the 59% average of the 1990s and the 65% average of the 1980s (see his April 16 Global Economic Forum dispatch, “China Needs to Spread Its Wealth”). Sure, there are some signs of sharply improving consumption trends in China’s coastal region, but the comparisons are coming off a very low base. For example, domestic car sales surged 70% last year to 1.7 million units; however, with an urban population now in excess of 520 million, new vehicle penetration remains remarkably low. A similar concentration is evident in the durable goods spending patterns traceable to bubbly property markets in Shanghai and Beijing. The macro case for Chinese consumption demand remains tough, in my view. With job losses from ongoing reforms of state-owned enterprises still estimated at 7-9 million annually, and with China’s workforce lacking the safety net of social security, private-sector pensions, and retraining programs, the Chinese consumer remains predisposed toward saving. That shows up very clearly in the numbers: Household saving deposits rose to 89% of Chinese GDP by the end of 2003, up from 62% in 1997. Autonomous support from private consumption in China remains at least three to five years away, in my view. When I say that in Beijing, they accuse me of being wildly optimistic.

Similar stories are evident elsewhere in the larger economies of the region. Korea is a case in point, where private consumption fell by 1.4% in real terms in 2003 following the unwinding of the country’s credit and property bubbles; the deterioration has ebbed a bit in early 2004, but the January-February average was still 0.1% below the comparable period of 2003. Like other high-wage economies, Korea is suffering from a jobless recovery of its own. While the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in February, our Asia team notes that on an unadjusted basis, it climbed to nearly a three-year high of 3.9% as the number of unemployed rose 9.2% y-o-y (see their March 22 report, Korea: Searching for Meaningful Labor Market Improvement). Lingering labor market pressures and consumption do not mix well in a post-bubble Korean economy.

Nor is the Indian consumer likely to emerge as Asia’s savior. The nation’s consumer demand is just too small in the aggregate to make a real difference at this point in time. Its economy, as well as its per capita income ($597 in 2003), is half the size of China’s. Moreover, World Bank data point to a declining trend in the underlying Indian consumption dynamic: Over the 1990 to 2001 period, household final consumption expenditure rose in per capita terms at just a 2.6% average annual rate in India, down markedly from the 3.6% trend of the 1980s. With the Indian work force expanding at a 1.5% to 1.8% average annual rate, chronically high unemployment remains a major stumbling block to the emergence of the Indian consumer. As Chetan Ahya, our India economist, notes, even impressive GDP growth of 5.1% over the past four years has not been enough to stem a significant decline in employment in the organized sector of the Indian economy (see his February 3, 2004, report, India: Appending Itself to the Global Labour Supply Chain). Like China, the net job creation needed for sustained vigor in Indian consumption may require GDP growth rates of at least 8%. Even then, India’s consumer is not likely to emerge overnight.

Lacking in autonomous support from private consumption, Asia’s economies continue to lean heavily on external demand as their major source of growth. The American consumer has long been the mainstay of that support. Those days are nearing an end, in my view. The combination of a stunning shortfall in job creation, together with anemic increases in real wages, has crimped underlying US income generation as never before. By our calculations, private-sector wage and salary disbursements — by far, the largest piece of US personal income — are currently running $360 billion (in real terms) below the average profile of the previous six business cycle upturns. Lacking the support of internally generated wage income, US consumption growth has been underpinned by the “toxic” forces of open-ended tax cuts, reduced saving, the extraction of purchasing power from over-valued assets such as property, and sharply rising household indebtedness required to monetize such wealth effects. Barring a sustained resurgence of job creation and increased real wages — highly unlikely in the current climate, in my view — the over-extended American consumer is running out of time. And so is an Asian economy that remains so heavily dependent on this one source of growth. The risk is that Asia’s strategy could backfire if US consumption growth starts to wane, as I suspect could well be the case later this year.

Lacking in domestic consumption support, the modern-day Asian economy is clinging to the only growth paradigm it has really ever known — reliance on external demand. That’s especially true of China, where the scope and scale of its export capabilities have now reached the critical mass that qualifies it as an engine of growth for other economies in Asia and elsewhere in the world. The resulting “China factor” — underscored by the 40% surge in the nation’s imports in 2003 — is now playing an important role in driving Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, as well as, to a lesser degree, Germany and the United States.

Of course, the export platforms needed for such trade-intensive activities also require infrastructure and production facilities of their own — sources of “derived demand” that add to the direct trade effects. That’s especially the case in Japan, where capacity expansion is currently concentrated in those industries that are increasing their trade with China. Such investment spending should not be confused with autonomous domestic demand. It is nothing more than a derivative of the export-led growth dynamic. Without external support — mainly from the American consumer — there would probably be little impetus to capex other than the replacement of worn-out facilities. Asia’s lack of support from domestic private consumption remains a glaring weakness of its growth and development strategies. In my view, the region’s central banks are only compounding this problem by running monetary policies with an aim to curtailing any currency appreciation (see my April 16 dispatch, Pitfalls of Asian Central Banking). That diminishes the urgency for Asian economies to wean themselves from long standing externally driven growth strategies.

One of the most basic premises of economic development models is that external demand eventually begets internal demand — that income and employment associated with exports ultimately gives rise to a new class of consumers. It is hard to argue with that notion. The problem comes in the order of magnitude. Externally focused production — whether it is in goods or services — still involves a relatively small segment of Asian workforces. In Japan, that share is around 11%; in China and India, back-of-the envelope guesstimates put the ratios at only about 8% and 6%, respectively. In my view, these ratios would have to increase by a multiple of at least two or three to spark a meaningful transformation of external into domestic demand. Yet that would likely entail a massive shifting of jobs from the high-wage industrial world — sparking intensified trade frictions and protectionist risks. That is not a sustainable outcome for Asia or the rest of the world.

There’s nothing wrong with relying on trade as an engine of economic development. The problem arises when there is undue reliance on such external demand. That’s a clear risk in Asia today. The region needs to do far more than pin its hopes on an export-led creation of private consumption. That’s especially the case since the over-extended American consumer is continuing to play a disproportionate role in supporting the demand side of the global economy. Asia needs to uncover a new consumer. And it should start by looking in the mirror.

morganstanley.com



To: gregor_us who wrote (4603)4/19/2004 10:57:18 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
<aggregate Fed-Speak in the next 5 days>

I don't disagree this could happen, but the fallout with this "Fed-Speak" is that everytime they engage in their subterfuge, denial and talking out of both sides of their mouths, the commodity market spikes (the Pinocchio effect). Look at crude oil today at a new high over $38, and metals coming back strong. The Pinocchio effect just encourages all the commodity carry trade speculators to get back in the game, and at huge cost to consumers, business, and the global economy. It's the Fed's Fully funded inflation program (F3IP) at work again.