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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (12160)	4/19/2004 10:29:47 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Copper Train Wreck notes: LME down to only 157,325 MT this morning, 193,316 at Comex. YOY US demand increased 14.4% through January. Mine production worldwide was down 4.1% There are a couple large mines planned. BHP's Escondida will produce 180,000 MT starting 2H,2006, costing nearly a billion to construct. PDG's Cerro Casale will produce 125,000 MT starting in 2007. Until then the only new supply will be from modest expansions, and repairs.

To: ild who wrote (12160)	4/19/2004 2:02:16 PM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

ild - thanks for the Faber article link. He says: "...investors should be aware that commodities can reach a new all-time high and subsequently new lows within a brief period of time, since during the price boom massive additional supplies are produced that later depress prices." He cites crude oil as the exception to this but based on everything I've heard and read recently from the base metal producers, it is highly unlikely that "massive additional supplies" will be produced anytime soon unless someone can locate the magic copper and nickle spigots and crank them wide open.