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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (43145)	4/19/2004 1:34:21 PM
From: Poet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

I can see why you take issue with my calling attention to that GWB post. I disagree with every point he made, except for the first-- that he, a Bush supporter, is now considering other opinions. I'd like to see more formerly pro-Bush (and pro-war) folks confess to their anger and frustration with how things are going in Iraq-- which I don't think should have been invaded in the first place. I'm a moderate, often get kicked by both sides. -g But in this case I'm willing to listen to, and encourage, dissent among Bush voters because of the invasion, if it means getting Bush out of office. And yes, for the GWB thread, it was thoughtful, IMO. :-)

To: lurqer who wrote (43145)	4/19/2004 1:53:31 PM
From: jlallen	Respond to of 89467

No matter how fractious the Iraqis are, it's one thing all can agree upon - "Throw out the occupiers." A very poor assumption...

To: lurqer who wrote (43145)	4/19/2004 5:48:50 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

Forecast: Japanese Yen Parity by Year End Financial Sense Online, Monday Market Wrapup by Jim Willie CB financialsense.com One must conclude, given chronically large Asian surpluses, that currency exchange adjustments and their effects vis-à-vis Asia have been largely unaddressed. In the next stage, the Japanese yen will shoot for parity, and realize the 98-100 target from the bullish inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. The following words were penned in my article “Ass-Backward Economics II” in describing the unstable situation with the Japanese yen, back in the first week of August, 2003. The prediction came to pass. The Japanese Nikkei stock index has moved strongly upward, breaking a longterm downtrend. First their bonds fall, then their stocks rise, next their currency rises. Note the clear longterm [inverted] "head & shoulders" bullish pattern in the yen currency, a very reliable pattern in its weekly chart. Note also the nearterm "ascending triangle" bullish pattern in the same chart, which appears to be in a tough struggle for resolution. The beneficiary so far has been their stock market. In its wake will follow their yen currency. Forces could easily become too great for the BoJ to withstand and resist a damaging yen appreciation. Sea changes are coming to the American shores, a potential tsunami from Japan. The BOJ will be forced to choose, a “Sophie’s Choice” if you will. In the stirring movie, the mother Sophie was forced to choose which of her two children would face death camp execution in Poland in WW2. The BOJ must not block the green light for continued massive foreign purchase of Nikkei equities, which serves to confirm the final steps in bank system cleanup. A single week in early March registered a record weekly net purchase of ¥968 billion, roughly 10% of Japan’s national annual trade surplus in a single week. The trend shows an increase of over half a billion yen per month. A rapid reversal of foreign capital flight would undermine the economic recovery in Japan, which has far more genuine earmarks than our adrenaline-based recovery in the United States. At risk in the difficult choice are Japanese exporters, who will be forced to stand tall in a harsher exchange rate environment. The USDollar exchange rates, with respect to the exporting nations responsible for a trade imbalance, have shown almost no adjustment. A double whammy could be in store. As Asia’s powerhouses gear down, we will be forced to adjust to higher import prices. Just when material prices, energy prices, health care prices, insurance prices, and food prices are on a sharp upswing, the US Economy must next adjust to higher import prices of finished and component products from Asia. However, wages and income will in all likelihood continue to decline as businesses react to cost pressures, by sending production offshore, by outsourcing services to Asia, by laying off workers, by cutting back operations, in a struggle to survive. Despite his conceited negligent claims, Chairman Greenspan did not overcome the effects of the stock bubble and bust. Unfortunately, it takes a little longer to work out the kinks when secular deflation unleashes powerful forces. He set us up for either a tight headlock in a liquidity trap or a vicious bond backlash, by creating even larger bond bubbles. Professional pundits and participants alike are transfixed by scarce oases of resuscitation, even as they dismiss growing evidence of dangerous debt and distortion. / jim