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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (129592)	4/19/2004 3:01:07 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

Good.

To: Bilow who wrote (129592)	4/19/2004 3:32:33 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I think that the constant talk about "civil war" in Iraq is just that, talk. Actually, Carl, in the north there have been reports of skirmishes between Kurds and Turkmen, with the former kicking the latter out of places where they (the Kurds) had been kicked out of a couple of decades ago. Also reports of intra-Kurd tensions between the two main Kurd factions. Also Sunni-Shia tensions, though the anger at the US seems to be overshadowing it for the moment. The civil war won't show itself until a government that looks like it will claim legitimacy for a longer period of time shows itself, and firmer claims of land, property, wealth, etc. are made. then again, maybe it is all talk, and the various factions will settle down once the US leaves them alone to pump their oil. Somehow I doubt it though.

To: Bilow who wrote (129592)	4/19/2004 10:17:13 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Turkmen quit northern Iraqi city council, say Kurds taking over [re: possibility of civil war] Jordan Times, Monday, March 29, 2004 KIRKUK (AFP) — Six local Turkmen leaders withdrew from the city council here Sunday, exacerbating ethnic tension in the city, a week after a similar move by their ethnic Arab colleagues, one of them said. Turkmen councillor, Mustafa Yaishi, said the northern Iraqi city was being "overwhelmed" by Kurds, and called for the dismissal of Kirkuk's governor and US military intervention "to drive away armed Kurdish militias." "The six members who represent the Turkmen Front have decided to suspend their membership in the city council because of the lack of security and chaos that prevails," Yaishi told AFP. That leaves the council, which at one time had up to 40 members, with only 15 Kurdish and seven Christian members. "We are denied our legitimate rights and we are kept away from administrative positions," he said. "These problems will contribute to a civil war," Yaishi warned. Last Sunday, nine Arab ethnic council members decided to pull out of the council for the same reasons, namely accusing the Kurds of taking over the city and depriving them of their political rights. Ethnic unrest has run high in Kirkuk since the end of the US-led war last year, as the city's Kurdish majority has been pushing to be incorporated into the autonomous Kurdish region further north. Under Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, many Kurds were evicted from oil-rich Kirkuk. Since the fall of his regime last April, they have been returning to the city in their thousands. The uneasy ethnic mix of Turkmen, Kurds and Arabs has fanned tensions and spilled over into violence on several occasions. Turkmen in Kirkuk number 250,000 out of a total population of more than one million, according to estimates that are difficult to verify. Turkmen claim they make up about 13 per cent of Iraq's entire population of 25 million, or slightly more than three million people, which would make them the third-largest ethnic group after Arabs and Kurds. But according to the last Iraqi census conducted in 1977, their people, who live almost exclusively in and around Kirkuk, account for no more than two per cent of the population. Turkmen oppose northern Iraq's majority Kurds, who have controlled the region since the 1991 Gulf War under US and British military protection, and suspect them of pushing for an independent Kurdish state. aljazeerah.info