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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4678)	4/19/2004 7:11:47 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

ROFLMAO

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (4678)	4/19/2004 9:32:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

From SonnyPage on the FOOL ..... Most of you know that my wife and I are realtors;we live and work in the north Atlanta suburbs of Roswell and Alpharetta. We had lunch today with Brian, a good friend, and he is also one of the mortgage lenders with whom we work. Lunch today was at the Thai Thai in Alpharetta, we are all crazy about Thai food. Anyway, Brian told us a story about a friend who had lost his job eighteen months ago; he was laid off after many years with his company. The friend was 58 then. Jobs have been hard to come by and older workers usually have more trouble finding jobs anyway, so, the months passed and no work. What small savings he and his wife had went first, and then the credit card debt started to build up....living on plastic, and still no job. And then, the answer appeared, one of those television commercials. When times are tough, surely there are more of them; a way out for usually desperate people. This particular one promoted day trading, and to Brain's friend, it seemed to be the answer to all of his problems. Fast forward eighteen months. Brian's friend got a real job,of sorts, last week...selling cars at a dealership. He is now sixty years old, what little savings he had gone, and $157,000 in credit card debt! There must be many out there like Brian's friend. Combine a soft job market, incredibly easy credit, and many Americans unable...or unwilling...or perhaps both, to cut expenses. On any given afternoon when I get home I have at least a couple of credit card applications in my mailbox...I have always, it seems, been "pre-approved" for some ridiculous sum of money. One day a few weeks back I had eight in my mailbox in one day....with one of them addressed to my fifteen year old son!! And finally I will leave you with this. Sunday morning we slept in, then had a serious house cleaning effort when we got up. By eleven or so, we settled the family down in the family room and downloaded a movie. Seabiscuit, and yes I know, it's been out a while. We just had not gotten around to it. Great family movie...horses and horse racing..I recommend it to all. Anyway, the time was the late 1920's and into the 1930's...the great crash, the depression. One of the main characters, as a boy, was seen living with his family; they were well off, prosperous and happy. Then the crash...the family loses everything...and finally they are reduced to placing their son with a family who can provide for him. Could times that incredibly awful ever return? We don't want to think so...but so much debt...and it keeps growing. We know what happens when an individual...like Brian's friend above...declares bankruptcy. But what happens if an entire nation...its government...has "maxed out its credit card"? And particularly if that nation is the largest economy in the world, and apparently the "designated consumer" for the rest of the world? What happens indeed. "Leave in May and go away". One of those Wall street adages that is right often enough to still be repeated. I raised cash to 35% today. I have not lost this year, but certainly have no gains to show. Having a cash stash is good. I wish you all well. sonnypage