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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JEB who wrote (45991)	4/19/2004 11:59:10 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 50167

Hi JEB; Re: "What do you know about the relations between Turkey and Syria?" See #reply-18405558 for my commentary from a year ago on this subject. Since then, I haven't commented on it (that I can recall), but if you want an update, read on: TurkishPress.com, April 11, 2004 ... Turkish Parliament Speaker Bulent Arinc returned from Syria to Turkey on Saturday. Arinc, who paid a three-day visit to Syria, told reporters at Ankara's Esenboga Airport that Syrian officials hosted warmly Turkish delegation. ''I stressed that Turkish government attaches great importance to completion of free trade agreement as soon as possible for Turkish-Syrian economic relations to be brought to a better level,'' he noted. Arinc said that he was received by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and noted that Syrian President expressed his pleasure over positive level in relations between the two countries and his belief that those relations would further improve. ... turkishpress.com I read the Turkish papers frequently enough that I knew that they weren't going to let our soldiers attack Iraq through Turkey. I guess that's more than most people in the US administration knew. That was one of the reasons I thought the buildup in the Middle East was a bluff. I knew that Turkey would never let us attack through their own territory. Read on: Bilow, January 13, 2003 But the past is hardly in favor of Turkish involvement. In the 1st Gulf war, Turkey signed on to allowing use of their bases on the same day that the air war began. ... The differences are clear. The US was barely able to get Turkey to sign up for the first Iraq war. There isn't a snowball's chance in HELL that Turkey is going to sign up for this one. No, not a snowball's chance in HELL. #reply-18440960 Bilow, January 27, 2003 What has gone on in Turkey is consistent with my prediction that we would get no real assistance from them, but instead just delay, delay, delay. That is, there is no reason for Turkey to fully piss off the US by saying "NO" directly. Instead, they will use the usual expedient of saying "sure, but later". #reply-18497343 I didn't find the original prediction that Turkey would "delay, delay, delay", but if you want, I could probably locate it. I'm glad you're asking about these minor fronts. Most people don't care much about them. But Iraq's long borders with Iran, Syria, Jordan and Turkey are part of the reason that invading the place was such a bad idea. Re: "Israel and Syria?" What's there to know, LOL. They hate each other. If the Israelis could suck us into a war with Syria they'd do it in a heartbeat. My guess is that the Israeli intellgence played a part in convincing Bush to go into Iraq. The hope in Israel (well the Likud party) was that eliminating Saddam's funding for Palestinian suicide bombers would eliminate the suicide bombing problem. Re: "Jordan and Syria?" Syria and Jordan have governments that are antithetical to each other (Baathist and Monarchy), and so it's unlikely that they will get along very well. But they're not at each other's throat like Israel and Syria. It's kind of odd, but Turkey seems to get along better with Syria than Jordan does. Re: "or ... our forces in ... Syria?" We have no *significant* forces in Syria. We never have. I doubt that we ever will. It is common neocon fantasy to believe that a half dozen Special Forces is enough to force a country like Syria to submit to our will. That is what they were talking about last summer (see #reply-19218633 for the details), and now look at what just happened to the US Marines on the Syrian border. Some submission. Those who are unaware of history are doomed to repeat it. Syria is a vicious little country led by a vicious little dictator who really doesn't care if a few hundred of his soldiers or citizens are killed by US Special Forces. Or killed by bombs dropped at high altitude, for that matter. -- Carl