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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (48802)	4/20/2004 4:23:26 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 52237

This is a confluence of events. A rising dollar is attractive to foreign investors but not if it crimps profits. Rising dollar and rising markets is the best of both worlds (managed to snag this scenario a couple times here recently). For example SP500 tracking ETF (not spy) in Canada is only down .2% today due to USD$ appreciation against CAD while the actual index is down 1.56%. But rather than buy the S&P maybe I just want to hold USD$ for a bit... Rising $ no help to investors if it hurts future profits. IBM gets beaten up because of currency gain portion on their latest report - well that was last quarter and the euro in particular topped ages ago relative to the buck. Perhaps the $, like bonds, is affecting investor psyche more because of the rapid changes and in part due to (perhaps) sudden realization on the part of some that things are changing. its always a little bumpy when major trends change. I've been mentioning the dollar frequently for several months., ever since EURUSD failed a test of top on Feb 18. Even USDJPY has moved significantly off the lows caused by climax selling on the news that the BOJ was not going to intervene in the US$ any further. What does the dollar do? Go up. USD bottoms. Bonds top, but that was just a bounce after the Bond Sell of a Generation. Selling continues. So far, we have to assume Gold tops. Quality of earnings, rising rates, ability of consumer to absorb rising rates without impacting spending, geopolitical turmoil. Lots of things for folks to worry about. As for the equity markets, no long term opinion here. If it wants up I will buy otherwise not.