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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12286)	4/20/2004 8:22:49 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<<Note: people have been predicting the death of housing for a long long time>> Yah, like this dummy!<G> Started By: patron_anejo_por_favor Date: Jun 16, 2001 10:09 PM It looks like the current wave of mortgage refinancings has run its course, following on the heels of an unprecedented boom in home ownership, mortgage lending, and home equity withdrawals. In Y2K, on average, home equity actually DECLINED, despite record home ownership! Now with unemployment rising and news of new layoffs rolling in almost daily, a crucial question is in the air. Are we on the cusp of an unprecedented bust in housing prices and home lending defaults? The real estate bust index was created to help us find exciting new, err, opportunities in the coming market debacle (or just allow us to hedge whatever real estate we may currently own against a collapse in prices). Got FNM puts?<G>

To: mishedlo who wrote (12286)	4/20/2004 9:25:11 PM
From: TheSlowLane	Respond to of 110194

mish - I didn't ask him when and he didn't say, but my sense is that he was talking about the next 3-6 months. I don't think he meant to say that everyone would be losing their homes, but it wouldn't take a lot of erosion at the margin to start putting pressure on home prices. Anecdotally, in my town there used to be maybe a 12-20 homes on the market at any given point over the last few years. Right now there are 80. At this point most people I talk to still seem to be operating on the assumption that house prices always and only go up but that conventional wisdom may be in for a test. When we bought our first house here 13 years ago, it had been foreclosed and then the bank that had foreclosed on it had gone under and the title hadn't been transferred properly so although we were supposed to close in June or July, we ended up closing in September, one day before the P&S expired and a month before our wedding. Not too much stress! Will we have deja vu all over again? We'll all get to find out...