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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (48881)	4/30/2004 5:26:08 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Yes, NZ is a nice place to live. I used to have a house in Pahia, view of the Bay of Islands, dolphins and yachts greeted each morning. On the World Bank Carbon Fund, I get the impression that the traded value of the credits will be $20-40/tn. So, if you are a coal-fired power generator and spewed 10m tn into your plume in 2002 and 2004 will be 11m tn and your cap, or quota, is 10m tn, then you are 1m tn over. The fine being $25/tn you look to buy the credits. You find a Calpine energy with unused credits because the new scrubber they put in their generator in 2002 cut them from 8m tn in 2002 to 6m tn. 8m tn being their cap, they can sell you 2m tn and they do so at a competitive price of, say, $20/tn or $20m. A broker would take a few points on the deal. This brings up all sorts of ideas about 'marginal cost of green technology' and long-term vs short-term emissions-reducing fixes but the idea I like is that this is a new market. Imagine GE putting in new, unproven tech and wanting to buy an option on 1m tn emissions for 2005 from someone. If the value is $20m, the option (if long-term) would be in the millions. This market is already working in Texas and Japan recently did a carbon emissions trade with Korea. Basically this is a new market and the last place to join will get the dirtiest industries. Think of it as the first city to charge for street parking and impose fines and suddenly there is a brand new market for car parks.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (48881)	4/30/2004 8:52:24 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

What you should see is Ruddiman's article in Climatic Change in December titled "The anthropogenic greenhouse era started thousands of years ago". He makes a really good case that humans have like you propose here, kept the Earth from freezing over for the last few thousand years by clearing land, growing rice, cattle etc. and keeping the atmosphere richer in methane and carbon dioxide than would otherwise be "natural". The problem is the acceleration in the trend since the industrial revolution and especially since 1950. I can send you a copy if you e-mail me. moom