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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (41102)	4/22/2004 4:03:05 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69972

I don't disagree with you that the charts for the semi equip stocks are terrible. They are essentially saying that they expect the economy to stall 9 months out in the future. Part of this is due to the election being over and part is due to the mixed guidance coming out of the sector. At the same time we can't ignore the fact that more and more companies are seeing restricted capacity at the fabs and increasing prices on what they need to pay for the parts. The economic slow down has slowed the migration to larger wafers and greater densities. At some point the fabs have to upgrade to meet demand, especially since it takes years to get a fab up and running properly. I have not seen a analysts call the cycle properly yet. At this point I am only suggesting that one put the fabs and semi equipment stocks on a watch list. Short term the COMPX cross back above 1990, but we need a confirmation day tomorrow before one can say we have good probability of testing the recent high. Otherwise there is more downside coming. So one should be entering not new longs at this point.