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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheSlowLane who wrote (12416)	4/22/2004 7:54:35 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<"One indication of the lack of available raw materials is the very low treatment and refining charges for certain commodities," he added. According to Meyer, copper treatment and refining charges have even swung into negative territory for some shipments as smelters reduce their charges yet further. > This is a Train Wreck symptom. Hope everybody reads your post, it's a great outside the Land of Oz presentation. These users must be badly stressed and gasping for air to survive. And if both material and credit to these money losing operations is really being cut off in China, they will drop like flies. What's really odd is how these commodities have sold off though. That could only suggest one of two things; 1. The phony dollar strength and interest rate jive has badly distorted the market, making it totally spec dominated right now. If so, hitting a stop loss will be more important than fundamentals, at least in the very short run. But once this process is finished (soon?) there will be a huge price disequilibrium vacuum to the upside. 2. The Train Wreck in China has already started in earnest. If so, even I have underestimated how fragile things are there. However, Asians shipped plenty to the west coast in March, Long Beach, LA not out yet:http://www.polb.com/html/1_about/ps_teusMonthly.html and I was looking for a flat number, and the Baltic quote.bloomberg.com has actually popped back up in the last week. I lean mostly towards 1, but think 2 may be starting to unfold, which adds to the confusion. Price rationing price spikes going forward should deliver the coup de grace.