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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12429)	4/22/2004 10:59:21 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Apr 22 2004 10:23 trotsky (Rydex bond funds) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there are currently $34.1 million invested in RYGBX ( long bonds ) vs. $ 2.114 BILLION in RYJUX ( short bonds ) . as i've mentioned before, there rarely has been more unanimity regarding a market's prospects than is in evidence here - everybody is looking down. of course those over $2.14 bn. in the short fund ( an all time record high, by a VAST margin - this fund USED to have $50 million invested in normal times ) suggest that the mother of all short covering rallies could begin at any moment. although $2.14 bn. is not much in terms of the overall bond universe, the ratio between the paltry investment in the long bond fund vs. the short bond fund is an excellent mirror of bond sentiment in general. you can count the bulls on the fingers of one hand - however, if you look at a long term bond chart, you'll notice that we're barely off multi-decade highs. normally one would expect people to be unreasonably bullish, since bonds have basically been going up for 24 years. but no, everybody decided they want to call the top. needless to say, that's NOT how bull markets end.