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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CharlieChina who wrote (14968)4/22/2004 10:45:34 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 207067
 
I am I reading this correctly? Were you predicting DOW 5850-3900 by Dec. 2003?

geocities.com

We have revised our Macro-term forecast/timing, Act 4, to 5850-3900 by December 2003 or earlier and have increased the probability of occurrence to 78%. This forecast/timing is wide in scope; however, it will combat and improve the reflection on the current condition of volume-wash moving forward.

If so... when did you realize you were wrong and when did you switch to a bullish position?

I've tried to skim your recorded "calls" but they seem to require study to see what you are saying. I'm probably reading it wrong, but I liked the Vella Fella's way of posting actual targets in an easy to understand way.

You say this often on that link:

The high probability of a NO BID (freefall) remains in effect.

To me... that means you were predicting a free fall in the markets for most of 2003. Forgive me if wrong, but that is how I read it:

April 11, 2003 "we have lowered our very high probability of a NO BID (freefall) state to Very High to probability. "

December 07, 2003 "No-Bid status is in effect. The weight clustering surrounding many of the support levels demonstrate continued weakness and project a high level of risk."


Currently geocities.com

Ahhhh! Bull converts to bear Jan 16, 2004... about when my portfolio peaked (and has been working lower since...)

January 16, 2004 Looking forward at the markets; after reviewing most available economic and technical data, we have determined that the Dow has been repositioned, realigned and sculpted into a generous large packet-wave, which permits the highest probability of thrusting-power, thus, enabling ZENiT to change its position from a BEAR to a BULL and therefore, changed our Dow target to a potential 13,500 by December 2007 or earlier. We have removed the “Black Hole Zone” in our Dow and Gold charts, for it does not apply to the new forming environment, at this stage in time. In addition, the US dollar forecast remains the same, but with a longer timeline. Gold, however, has been recalculated to $350 to reflect the re-evaluation of the physical supply in Gold and the forecasting of the re-deployment of cash from “in-the-money” Gold equities into the potentially upward US equity markets.

Interesting stuff.

So you have a target for the DOW of 20,576 by 2009 which is 14.8% a year from here... are you related to Dent? -snort

How much variability do you project?

Thanks for the honest summary of your calls. Bull markets need bears to covert to bulls on the way up or the bull ends.

I don't have a clue how to forecast markets except to say a 200 year chart of the market shows it going up so that is the trend. I hang out here to try and learn something and appreciate those who put their thoughts out there, right or wrong. My skills are more in individual stocks but I know there is always room to grow.

Kirk