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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RealMuLan who wrote (48964)4/23/2004 1:15:47 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
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To: RealMuLan who wrote (48964)4/24/2004 12:26:52 PM
From: BubbaFred  Respond to of 74559
 
Electronic Silk Road: Games, games, games
By James Borton

See also Part 1: Tech venture capital pouring into China

Jay Chen works in Zhongguancun Science and Technology Park (ZSTP), Beijing's first and largest high-technology enclave, often called "China's Silicon Valley". More than 30 hectares in northwestern Beijing, this tech-driven district hosts scores of Internet companies, software developers, startups and even global brands such as Legend Computer Systems, Founder, and Huawei Technology.

Each day, Chen, an overseas Chinese and former bond analyst and hedge-fund trader on Wall Street, applies his business acumen and Columbia University MBA (master of business administration degree) to OurGame, one of the hottest online gaming companies in China. In fact, China's online gaming industry is booming, with more than 14 million players. Some analysts forecast the industry's growth to reach US$300 million by the end of 2004.

"Entertainment is one of the best applications of the Internet, and online games also largely solve the problem of piracy in China," claimed Chen in a recent e-mail interview with Asia Times Online. The digital frenzy is also attributed to the increasing interaction of online communities, said Chen.

While this physical area in Beijing offers the most concentrated intelligence and technology resources in China, it is surprising to some that the ZSTP in Beijing is tapping key technology personnel at state-funded software companies to develop online entertainment.

Not unlike the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) or Stanford University, this China science park concentrates talent recruited from more than 68 colleges and universities with an enrollment of 300,000, and 213 research institutes specializing in different subjects - 36 percent of its academicians come from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering. The park is running at full occupancy, with thousands of technology enterprises authorized by the Ministry of Science and Technology.

In fact, scores of other Chinese coastal cities have now established high-tech zones modeled on California's Silicon Valley south of San Francisco, but only a minuscule number are developing any leading-edge technologies. These days the government is keen to bolster entertainment and online gaming at a breakneck pace.

80 million Internet users, most craving entertainment
With almost 80 million Internet users, the government acknowledges that more than 60 percent are logging on to the Internet and crowding Internet bars only in search of entertainment, according to recent statistics from the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC). The numbers are staggering, and the number of young people logging on for online games rose by almost 64 percent in 2003, according to China Games Publishers Association.

It's no wonder that OurGame.com is generating more registered players each day and, in turn, receiving an impressive monthly cash flow. Founded in 1998, OurGame.com, a subsidiary of SeaRainbow Holding Corp, is an integrated online entertainment service provider focusing on casual online games such as card and board games.

Piper Jaffray's securities analyst, Safa Rashtchy, says OurGame.com has 70 million registered users and 10 million active users a week, with peak simultaneous players of 320,000.

The company's predominant revenue stream is charging a monthly user fee. In addition, it provides wireless gaming services to consumers through mobile phones and also generates advertising revenue. Since OurGame is currently engaged in sensitive business negotiations, the company declined to comment in detail on financial arrangements and prospects.

OurGame's main competition, Shanda Networking, the largest online gaming firm in Shanghai, is soon to file for a Nasdaq listing. According to the New York investment banking firm Goldman Sachs, about 25 percent of Shanda's shares will be offered. This Chinese firm already has an estimated listing valuation of more than $1 billion.

Shanda maintains it has millions of registered users on its website, www.shanda.com.cn. The official Xinhua news agency recently reported that Shanda's leading user program is the South Korean multi-player fantasy game Legend. All Chinese online players pay a flat fee of $4.25 a month for access. This has made the company very profitable, reporting earnings in excess of $70 million at the close of 2003.

As the number of Internet users is increasing exponentially, the government hosted the first China Digital Entertainment Expo Conference. To no one's surprise, both the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Education supported the program, demonstrating that the government is committed to developing the local online game industry.

China one of the largest online game consumers
China is one of the world's largest online game consumption markets, according to key industry analysts, but 70 percent of market share is taken by South Korean game software.

"From our perspective, the gaming industry will see a tremendous phase of growth through online participation. The key driver for this includes increasing broadband services at ever-falling prices - this is for both wired and wireless means," said technology analyst Albert Lin, of American Tech Research in San Francisco.

The development of ZSTP appears to be meeting many of its objectives as a reform experimental zone. Some critics, however, dispute whether developing fantasy gaming is actually helping to rejuvenate the nation through science and education, or even creating a national technology-innovation demonstration base that is competitive internationally.

What is certain is that Beijing has positioned itself to become the country's top software development and production base. With ZSTP's ability to attract the best and brightest young engineers and enterprising developers, the science park has strong advantages in technologies and talents that are essential to develop an attractive and profitable software industry.

Officials of Beijing's Ministry of Science and Technology are also zealously recommending to venture capitalists some promising software startups, in the gaming industry.

China's first innovation fund was first established in 1999 by the State Council to support companies developing new and high technologies and is setting a precedent for additional funds for such startups. To date the four-year-old innovation fund, with almost $360 million capital approved from the state budget, has financed almost 4,000 projects carried out by startups.

For those venture boosters of the online gaming software market, the industrywide projection for sales in 2005 may exceed $950 million.

For years, Beijing has followed Taiwan's sector-specific industrial policy, carefully observing its neighbor building up its demand for the supply of electronics. It has not gone unnoticed among China's leadership just how Taiwan emerged as a global player in information communication technology (ICT) after a long gestation period in which the island government also steered market-based activity and generated an IT-educated workforce and even created its innovative global Hsinchau Science Park.

Does gaming actually promote science, technology?
Questions loom large for Beijing. What role will ICT play in education? What should be the nature of scientific and technology discourse in a web environment? Is online entertainment a viable and effective state-supported enterprise now that is has been officially included into the country's "863 High-Tech Program"? Will Beijing's cyber-bunker-like mentality eventually dissolve as more technocrats take high positions within the reformist new China millennium agenda?

China's accelerated push for an "electronic silk road" to reach the digitally uninvited is ambitious. Leapfrogging to the next generation of digital tools is also understandably recognized on a global basis as technology's greatest opportunity. Nevertheless, the paradox of globalization is dramatic in the People's Republic (PRC). China has attracted more foreign investment by far than any other developing country, nearly $500 billion since it began internationalizing its economy.

Chinese technocrats have coined the word "informatization" to describe the incorporation of ICT into all spheres of daily life. This includes more than 30,000 computer chat rooms and cafes countrywide. However, for most Chinese, access to the Internet or a computer remains a fantasy. Free-market economic policies in the Middle Kingdom are creating a widening middle class, but more than 700 million poor villagers remain far outside the digital commercial zone.

As part of the efforts of the government to transmit benefits to the poor central and western regions, Beijing is increasing its collaboration with business and education.

"As in everything else, all of this technology and connectivity can be a double-edged sword - polarization caused by income disparity, the volatility of our social and natural environment, our vulnerability against terrorism, and more. In view of our frailty, we must think searchingly, with sensitivity and alertness, as to how to master its dynamics and govern our course in this knowledge era," said former deputy minister of education Madame Wei Yu in a keynote address at an online learning conference in Hong Kong in February.

So far Beijing's efforts to buttress venture funding for new enterprises to create "10,000 new IT blooms" mixes fantasy and technology. It may take much more than a science park or two, online gamesmanship, and tea-leaf readers to determine what, if any, deep and far-reaching impact games will have on China's economic, social and political life.

James Borton can be reached at asiareview@yahoo.com.
atimes.com



To: RealMuLan who wrote (48964)4/24/2004 12:29:45 PM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Tech venture capital pouring into China
By James Borton

Zero2ipo's modern offices in Beijing, near Motorola Research's headquarters, is bustling these days. This nascent Chinese venture-capital market-research firm is a determined cheerleader for the latest high-growth ventures pioneered by techno-entrepreneurs in China, and drawing hardy, optimistic and realistic US investors.

US venture capitalists, many in Menlo Park, California, were severely wounded when the technology bubble burst a few years ago. But the improving US economy, surplus investment capital, Beijing's burgeoning growth and emergence of a Chinese venture-capital market are luring many Sandhill Road technology investors to the Middle Kingdom - their eyes wide open to opportunities and pitfalls.

China's rapid growth, at least in urban centers such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, has pushed the Communist Party and its new leadership to accept the inevitable: that the country's racing economy must be bolstered by private equity investments. This is particularly important as the latest figures from the Commerce Ministry show that actual foreign investment rose 7.5 percent in March compared with a year earlier.

A home-grown venture-capital case in point: Zero2ipo. Established in 1999 by Gavin Ni, a Tsinghua University graduate, and several other Chinese graduates, the company now has 40 professionals with backgrounds in venture capital, investment banking and market research. "Our advisory venture service is the core business of Zero2ipo, including private placement, IPO [initial public offering], M&A [merger and acquisition], and venture-capital training and education," said Ni, an energetic thirtysomething consummate investment-capital salon organizer.

Ni first established, with support from fellow Beijing classmates, the Tsinghua Entrepreneurs Club (TEC) in 1998. In those pioneering years, TEC boasted a membership of more than 500, most of them zealous graduate students pursuing master of business administration (MBA) and PhD degrees.

Over the past few years, Ni has cultivated and expanded his business network composed of overseas investors and Chinese entrepreneurs. After all, he's an accomplished author and credited with publishing the first in-depth examination of Chinese venture capital and entrepreneurship. His company also hosts monthly investor and entrepreneur networking salons and an annual China Venture Capital conference.

China drew $1.57 billion in private equity in 2003
China attracted US$1.57 billion in private equity in 2003, compared with just $350 million the previous year, according to the Hong Kong-based Asian Venture Capital Journal.

Ni and other young Chinese entrepreneurs have many reasons to be bullish. New reforms and technologies are rocketing Chinese companies into the global markets. Witness a post-bubble brand of entrepreneurship, new venture capitalism and a revived Internet market, especially in those pioneer portals Netease, Sohu and Sina.com, all uniting, brightening and dotting the Middle Kingdom's information-technology (IT) landscape from Xi'an to Shenzhen.

In the past five years, China's home-grown venture funds such as New Margin Ventures and Chengwei Ventures, led by management teams trained in the United States, use their connections, or guanxi, to help Chinese startups navigate the country's tightly regulated economy. It was in the mid-1990s, long before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US and the restrictive student-visa policies in that country, when many of China's brightest students went abroad to graduate school - and never returned.

Now it is a different picture, as many young highly educated Chinese return home, no doubt lured by the country's dynamic economic growth and the signs of greater freedom and opportunity in the private sector.

China still lacks a strong technology sector that can generate new enterprises, and so most domestic firms, which represent about one-third of the three-year-old Beijing-based China Venture Capital Association's membership of more than 80 funds, are turning to universities for prospective investments. Tsinghua Investment Management, a Sino-US fund, for example, includes China's prestigious Tsinghua University among its limited partners and has made 14 investments (about half were spinoffs of the university) since it was founded in 2000.

Chinese corporations start venture capital operations
As China's knowledge of the venture business increases, some major domestic corporations, especially high-tech firms, have established venture-capital operations. Companies such as Stone Group, Legend, Tsinghua Tongfang and Haier have created their own independent venture-capital firms or joint venture-capital firms to invest strategically in China's technology startups.

Few dispute that financial reforms in China are contributing to the new economy, and some analysts also attribute this economic dividend to the emergence of Chinese venture capital. Investment opportunities can be found in incubator companies now flowering in major universities such as Peking and Tsinghua, government-funded high-tech parks, and China's own ambitious equivalent of Silicon Valley - Zhongguancun Science Park.

"This venture business is both an experiment and an education for the Chinese, but remember, they are also quick studies," claimed Dan Schwartz, publisher and editor of leading trade magazine Asian Venture Capital Journal, which has offices in Hong Kong and New York.

After years of glacial bureaucratic steps, venture capital in China is now developing in a responsible manner, offering promising trends and increased transparency, according to Chinese and foreign experts. The National People's Congress has passed rules and recommendations to improve transparency, the scale of investments and, most important, exit strategies for the venture capitalists.

According to Wei Xiao, managing director for Beijing Venture Capital Co, there is still a shortage of qualified local professionals to support venture-capital investments. The changes in the industry have now ushered in foreign venture-capital companies eager for access to the Chinese market. And with China's national strategy of "revitalizing the country through science and education", many of these foreign investments are directed into training and education sectors to meet the rising demands in the new venture business.

China is still on a long march to create its own brand of an Intel-inspired culture, but each year in scores of science parks, there is an increasing level of innovation, widely regarded as the marrow of Silicon Valley's brilliant past and promising present. Across that wide blue Pacific Ocean, California still boasts its share of buccaneer capitalists, while China's surplus of state assistance is propped up with talented overseas Chinese spinning out their own variation of venture capitalism.

Beijing needs to back off, encourage private capital
Of course, the government remains the primary source of capital, pumping it into scores of incubators in state-owned high-tech parks. In the past few months, at several Beijing venture-business conferences, participants all agreed that the central government must reduce direct participation in venture capital and instead concentrate on formulating policies that support genuine enterprise development.

Venture funds are once again pouring into China from all over the globe. After the dot-com collapse, what is especially revealing are the number of Menlo Park-seasoned venture capitalists surging into Beijing's and Shanghai's technology parks.

While China is a global priority investment target in Asia, private equity investors have traditionally been concerned about reliable structures and legal protections for their investments, as well as realistic and achievable exit strategies. Those concerns are now receding as a significant number of successful transactions, both inbound investments and exits, have been completed.

The new leadership of the Chinese Communist Party has come to accept the inevitable: China's racing economic growth, especially in urban centers, requires fuel from private equity investments. In the current issue of Foreign Affairs, published by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, Elizabeth Economy claims in an article titled "Don't Break the Engagement" that private assets now exceed state assets by more than 1 trillion yuan, or $1.2 billion.

Although there remain some legal hurdles for successfully executed exit strategies, the atmosphere seems downright heady. Some legal experts still maintain a healthy skepticism.

"While the new regulations go a long way towards resolving many of the obstacles previously posed by Chinese law, the reality is that most foreign fund investors still prefer to make their investments through offshore holding vehicles, usually in the Cayman Islands, because this facilitates their exit transactions," said Howard Chao, the head of O'Melveny & Myers' Asia law practice.

Some rosy scenarios, and warnings
This investment strategy may be true for most US investors, but not International Data Group (IDG), the world's largest company specializing in high-tech services and publications. It first entered China's venture investment sector in 1989 and has made a total investment exceeding $200 million. Bolstering its investment, IDG Ventures has earned an internal rate of return (IRR) of about 65 percent on the 110 investments it has made in China since the early 1990s, according to its founder and chairman, Patrick McGovern.

IDD Ventures' stellar financial performance in China was underscored last year by its sale to Yahoo! of shares in the Chinese-language search-engine company 3721 Network Software Co Ltd in a cash deal valued at $120 million.

While there is no shortage of boosters for the development of the China Venture Capital Association (CVCA) with well over $1 billion in private equity funds, one recognized industry observer, Paul Waide, voices a cautious dissenting perspective.

"If you look at numbers from China's local firms that cover venture-capital investments, you will see wild claims like 90 percent of all venture investment comes from offshore, but the facts behind those numbers need to be considered. Semiconductor investments account for about a quarter of all private equity investments, and because some of the private equity funds also play in the venture space, the two often get lumped in the same basket," said Waide, editor of the online Pacific Epoch, based in Shanghai.

New rules help capital investors
Few dispute that as part of Beijing's long march to economic liberalization, the government has quietly approved investment rules that improve the lot of venture-capital investors.

"The 2003 venture-capital fund regulations are technically a great improvement over the original regulations," Matthew McGinn told Asia Times Online in an e-mail interview from Baker & McKenzie's Hong Kong office. "However, it will probably take a significant period of practical experience of smaller funds with Asian-based sponsors and investors who are themselves comfortable in China before any sponsor of large international funds is comfortable directly exposing itself, its offshore investors and its fund-management arrangements to the Chinese legal system."

The new laws allow foreign venture capitalists to set up wholly owned Chinese management companies and Chinese joint-venture limited partnerships, a giant step for foreign venture funds.

With IDG's venture success, along with New Margin Ventures, and Zero2ipo's trumpeting new entrepreneurial seminars and educational programs, the twilight world for entrepreneurs once trapped between rigid communist ideology and the new reforms seems to be moving toward dawn. As more and more techno-comrades move into new villas, flush with their successful ventures, their swelling ranks may channel more available capital to young innovators to wire a new Middle Kingdom.

Tomorrow: Mixing fantasy and technology
James Borton is working on a book The Electronic Silk Road: How Technology is Reshaping Education in China. He can be reached at asiareview@yahoo.com.

atimes.com