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To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/23/2004 10:50:39 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 209892

Yep my preferred is as you noted Clappy. In the broader sense I think we are still in a BIG B. The top was the A now we have started the B down and are in the b of that B, not too far down the road start a c of that B. Think I have that right. Going to add a few more poots soon I think.

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 7:38:02 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Thanks for putting it all together, C. Your last chart happens to be similar to the one by the EWI. They are admittedly bearish, but they never break the "rules". Why would they, after all, they wrote the book... -g. The difference is that they expect another down-up sequence before the rally tops out, somewhere under 10.6K on the DOW. To paraphrase the great American philosopher - Dirty Harry - A man has to know his limitations -- as well as the limitations of his method. The fact that there are so many legitimate EW interpretations at the current juncture means that we shouldn't place too much faith into any of them. The only formation where I can hang my hat on at this time is the five-wave impulsive decline in the DOW off the February 19 high. I recognize that this five-waver a) has limited predictive value, since the entire game is probabilistic, and b) - it can be a "C" of a correction, and, actually, turn out to have been a good buying point, as it has been so far. What's left to play? I like the abovementioned 10600 on the DOW. In order to get there, the index would have to make a new recovery high, as well as to retrace more than 78.6% of the preceding decline (off the 2/19 top). Ergo, with a meaningful stop a 150 points away, I think that the best risk/reward for a(n agnostic) trader at this time is to be short. If this stance is wrong, one can take the small lump, and go look for other plays.

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 7:49:05 AM
From: crustyoldprospector	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi Clappy, FWIW, I see charts 1 & 3 as equally plausible, and 1 has been my working model. Regarding chart 1, could the 5 here could be labled different internally ... 1 on 3/27, 2 on 3/30, 3 on 4/05, 4 on 4/20, and presently we are in the ii or iii of 5? Regards, crusty

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 10:33:18 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Preliminary Voting Tally: Map 1: Mchjc, Clappy, 1/2 Crusty Map 2: JJ, 1/2 Crusty, Skinowski, Clappy's Little Voice inside his head. Map 3: JWest, NSPolar, EWI RE: Message 20058145 Get your votes in this weekend. This is a scientific study that I intend to submit to Baron's, The Harvard School of Economics, Robert R Prechter, Alan Greenspan, George Soros, and CNBC. Either that or I'll just post it here, instead. Let them fend for themselves...

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 5:13:01 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

clappy, you can put me down for #1 And a variation of #2 would be my alternate, with a truncated "c" in that scenario not breaching the March low It may have been me that mentioned that it could be a 5 of a C that began 3/03 (the A having begun 10/02). I think count #1 also fits with Zeev's roadmap. He might be on a hot streak, because not only did his map correctly call last week's higher low, he correctly called the March low to the very day. According to his map, it's now smooth sailing to COMPX 2200 in June. wecus.de

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 5:14:15 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Very interesting/useful exercise you've started, Clappie....Good idea......Working my way through weekend posts so far, and see that you have 4 responses already, and looking forward to reading those, and any others over the weekend. I have some clarifications for you as to my current count..........which is NOT, at the moment, Map 1. Map 1 does , however, represent an alternative I said last week that I was "wondering" about......but I'm not quite yet ready to adopt it. As of NOW, I would label the March low A (instead of the 4 you show); the rise into Apr 5 as "a" (instead of 1); and the fall into Apr 21 as a "b" (instead of 2). So I would be assuming we're now in "c" up. All this would complete a B up, counting from the high of Jan......That would leave another C down in the hopper before we take off for new highs in a 5-wave impulse. You will note that this count corresponds quite well with Map 2......EXCEPT that I would not project C down below the Mar low..My rationale for this is the "rule of alternation". I see the preceding Wave II (starting Oct 2002) as a zig-zag......and therefore Wave IV, which I think we are now well into, would have to alternate into a flat or triangle.... I have said before that longer-range EW counts, necessarily, in my view, engage a person's FA bias. That has been....and I think still is.....true in my case.....and that has served me very well since Oct '02. A big part of my thinking in EW relies on my continued positive outlook for the US economy, earnings, etc. I have one big caveat, though......and that is the whole business of terrorism, Iraq, etc......and whether that goes from bad to worse.....much worse.. But hardly possible, as I see it, to factor that into the picture.. OT..Since it's a weekend.....Call you "Clappie" because somebody around here once did, and seemed like a friendly handle.....Have to tell you though I hesitate doing so. Will always remind me of an Army barracks mate......many, many years ago....to whom we gave that nickname. He was especially active on his weekend passes into town, and, unfortunately, suffered the consequences....leading to his nickname......<VBG>

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 6:22:56 PM
From: steve from ihub	Respond to of 209892

these various charts of possible bullish and bearish counts answers my recent question of the thread. Put me down for door number one. I dont do EW but my work has the ndx challenging new highs by friday may 7th.

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/24/2004 10:11:47 PM
From: heehee1	Respond to of 209892

My vote is for #2

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/25/2004 4:28:14 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

#1

To: Clappy who wrote (95231)	4/25/2004 5:46:11 PM
From: jjstingray	Respond to of 209892

I like number two. We are doing a B up here with a big C wave down to come. I think it matches up nicely with Freep's 11 week cycle low. We would hit that low on or about on June 3rd or so. stockcharts.com[w,a]whclyyay[de][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,10!lp14,3,3!la12,26,9!ll14][J29440888,Y]&pref=G 11 week cycle chart. stockcharts.com[w,a]whclyyay[d20020815,20041215][pf][vc60][J19101480,Y]&pref=G