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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (48980)4/24/2004 6:45:05 AM
From: glenn_a  Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Maurice.

I definitely appreciate your larger point that the "information age" will witness a certain acceleration of humanity. Of course, the transition from a primarily agrarian economy to an industrial economy certainly had its painful moments as well. The enclosure movements of the commons that began in England are particularly interesting as the commons were privatized. This was a very painful processes for many. And certainly, the industrial revolution had many geopolitical losers - for the most part non-Western nations, and particularly nations along the old spice route who controlled the caravan trade, which lost out to the seafaring empires of Europe.

With respect to OFDM-based wireless technology, what has surprised me is how quickly things have progressed. Standards-based WiMAX equipment should be in the marketplace by mid-year 2005, with the 802.16e mobility standards ratified I believe later this year. I had not expected to see a transition to 4G cellular until 2010-ish initially. Things now appear to be moving much more quickly, particularly in Asia, and then especially in Korea. Don't think the Koreans or Asia are to happy with CDMA royalty sums, and I don't believe they will let the same scenario emerge with 4G cellular.

I really don't see 3G is a very economical alternative to 4G cellular. 2.5 is fine as requiring only a software upgrade to the base stations, but 3G requires a full hardware upgrade, and must be transitioned to "whole hog" so to speak.

I found the following article interesting, however, as a way to evolve UMTS into a more viable service, and provide better use of existing 3G spectrum.

Message 20054899

Best regards Maurice.
Glenn