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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12535)	4/24/2004 8:22:07 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 110194

No worries maaan stockcharts.com[r,a]maclnyay[pi!b50!d20,2!f][vc60][iuah12,26,9!lb14!ll14][J22732345,Y]&pref=G M

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12535)	4/24/2004 10:38:29 AM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 110194

Thanks Darffot for the Earlier Oil Post. Any thoughts on the COT report this week? Meanwhile, I have just finished reading most of Barron's. It seemed excessively bearish this week. Gupta's views struck me as being both woefully late, and quite premature. Separately, in the last 2-4 weeks I have been awaiting the return of the word "Goldilocks" to the media--but it was Abelson who printed it first, as far as I can tell. The view I am using on the markets this past week is very psychological and emotional--not fundamental. I'm interested in the fear/relief dynamic Greenspan put into play but more broadly I believe the Market Id (yes, Id) wants to re-project the Goldilocks Dream once again. Where I disagree with Gupta short term--especially on the Hang Seng CEI Index, is that in the short to near term there is plenty of room here for the market to project its Desire--before it gets hit over the head with a 2x4.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12535)	4/24/2004 4:29:28 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

That is one of 4 things that could end the global reflation trade: China slowdowm, US interest rates rising, US economy sliding again and loss of momentum overall. Any of the above could do it, or all of them together. Liquidity measures in recent weeks suggest drying process is beginning: look at H-shares, Gold, Australian dollar, EM bonds, etc. all show liquidity at margin evaporating. But coporates are still healthy so no panic yet by a long measure.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12535)	4/24/2004 4:31:21 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

This view of inflation (CPI) is of course highly youthful! It pays to remeber that the LONG TERM average of 10 year treasures in the US since innception was ????Can anyone guess???

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12535)	4/25/2004 10:54:02 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I read the article. IMO his view about inflation is too benign (as most are). Secondly, he (and others) seem to feel that commodities are "extremely inflated". I feel that's incorrect, in fact some commodities like the metals, have corrected, and are now undervalued, given the real physical shortages. Energy is harder to quantify because of the geopolitical risks. Commodities are volatile because of the big in and out, back in speculative component, but that's different from being "inflated". I see a China bust too, but from even higher commodity prices (Train Wreck). I think their incremental policy slowdown will have only minor effect, unless they really engage in a severe credit constriction, and that's very unlikely.