Recent Polls
John Zogby
Zogby International
Thursday, April 22, 2004; 12:30 p.m. ET
Are the recent poll numbers showing President Bush ahead of Kerry a sign that his $50 million ad blitz is working? How accurate are polls this far from the election? What is happening in the battleground states?
John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, discussed the newest polling numbers, his data and the 2004 election.
The transcript follows.
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
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Washington, D.C.: Your poll of 4/18 showed Kerry up by three and this was one day before The Washington Post poll showing Bush up by five. What gives? Are the pollsters and pundits going to get it all wrong AGAIN this election year!?
John Zogby : I haven’t gotten it wrong. I have gotten the presidential elections almost perfect. 1996 was within a couple of tenths of a percent, I had the Gore victory in the popular vote in 2000 and nailed almost all of my elections in 2004 – the primaries. I don’t think that you should look at pinpoint precision, I think you should look at how close the polls are to each other. If you look at mine and the other two we are all in the margin of error.
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New York, N/Y.: When a polls margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent, what exactly does this mean? For example, a poll says Bush 48 Kerry 45, does it mean that Kerry could be at 48 and Bush at 45 or can Kerry be at 43 with bush at 51?
John Zogby : You are right, it actually means both. The person with 48 percent can be at plus or minus three, same with the person at 45 percent. So translated, it can be as much as a six point spread.
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Baltimore, Md. : Part of the reason for Kerry's poll drop might be the fading of the economy as an issue, with Iraq dominating the news and reports of job growth and other positive economic signs. But what evidence is there that the economy remains a major problem for the president, especially in crucial Midwestern swing states (like Ohio), where job losses have been heavy and recovery is slow?
John Zogby : The premise that you start with I think is wrong because my poll has Kerry ahead with no drop. My poll also indicates that the economy by 10 points is the number one issue – 30 percent. When voters say the economy is the issue, they are not saying because it is good. I still have one in five voters who tell me that they are afraid of losing a job in the next 12 months and one in four voters in households earning $75,000 or more. Voters don’t measure their lives in trillions and billions of dollars. Essentially the economy will be a major issue in this campaign and offer Kerry an opportunity in some of the battleground states like Ohio, Missouri, West Virginia, etc.
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Key West, Fla.: Dear Mr. Zogby:
First, let me say that since the 2000 Presidential Election you are the only pollster that I trust. You stated that Gore would win the popular vote and you were right. Personally, I think that Gore won Florida but that's a different matter. Here is my two-part question: What states did President Bush win in 2000 that John Kerry has a decent chance to win and what states did Al Gore win in 2000 that President Bush has a decent chance to win? Also, I realize that the election is six months away but if you were a betting man who do you think is going to win and why? Thanks
John Zogby : Good questions. First of all I think the following red states are very much at play: New Hampshire, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Florida and possibly Arizona. I think the following blue states are in play: Pennsylvania, Oregon and Minnesota. There are more reds than blues I think are in play this year. As for New Mexico, even though it was very very close in 2000, I think that both the growing Latino vote and the presence of Richardson as governor will probably carry the day for Kerry.
I think this election is John Kerry’s to lose. Which is not to say that he can’t rise to the occasion.
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Stockton, Calif.: How long does an event or series of events generally take to make a noticeable effect on the candidates' standings in natonal polls? Is it immediate or is there lag time? (Examples: large buys on television; major players testifying before a commission; capture or death of important enemy leader)
John Zogby : Good point. I operate by a 48-hour rule. Unless it’s a Kennedy assassination or 9/11, which would have an immediate effect, most other events generally take 48 hours to gestate. Meaning it takes that long to talk about it, see the talking heads, discuss it at the water cooler or hairdresser. With that said I think you are going to see very little fluctuation from now to Nov. 2nd. I think we are evenly polarized, pretty hardened and I think there are pretty few swing voters out there.
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Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Ralph Nader -- a man rising in the polls and raising money. But during the recent months the media circus said he wouldn't be a factor this time and it was all ego and pathos. Cue the clowns and balloons.
Which is right here? A candidate on the move or hubris and hooey?
And if momentum is working here -- did he get that from the Deaniacs, third parties, his own base, or working a philosopher's stone?
By the way, I'm a Vietnam Era Vet who contributed to Dean and have now moved on to Nader -- not a Deaniac by any means.
For your insights and analyses: Thanks much.
John Zogby : I think that both those arguments are wrong. I think that what is making Nader’s numbers as high as they are – and it is 3 points in my poll – are voters who are not with the Democrats who are on the left, would ordinarily not vote. There is a fraction of that 3 percent who want to see Kerry move to the left. Nader will be on the ballot on fewer states, but even if he captures only 25 percent of the vote he got in 2000 he could still hurt Kerry in some closely competitive states.
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Concord, N.H.: John:
Have you polled on any aspect of a military draft recently?
John Zogby : I have not, but here is what I think. I don’t believe any candidate will touch it with a ten-foot pole. And I also believe that the greater intensity is with the opposition to the war and that could generate a higher turnout among 18-25 year olds, especially woment.
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Baltimore, Md.: Why is that your "brand" as a pollster seems to get more respect from pundits and politicians? Conservatives, especially, seem to hold you in high regard, even though I am sure your questions and methodology have no built-in bias. Can you explain your credibility? Thanks.
John Zogby : Well, I think it is a number of things. One is that I did have a reputation for getting some very high profile races closer than many of my colleagues. Secondly, even though personally I have never hidden the fact that my politics are on the very left, my numbers don’t reflect it. That was enough for people like Rush Limbaugh and others like Bill O’Reilly and Shawn Hannity to label me as honest. And then, thirdly, I think some of it has to do with the fact that there is a Zogby behind the Zogby poll. So instead of the AJAX Polling Firm, there is a real person and analyst who carries the same name as the brand. I hope that answers the question.
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Charlotte, N.C.: Have you done any polling in battleground states? Can you tell us anything about these states at this stage of the game?
John Zogby : I have not in battleground states, however I have seen other polls and right now it is razor thin in so many of them. Fior example Bush and Kerry trade leads in New Hampshire. Bush is ahead by a few points in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The two are tied in West Virginia. They trade leads in Florida. Etc. It is like that and I think it will continue to be.
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Mineola, N.Y.: The great journalist Walter Lippman in his famous book "Public Opinion" discussed polling as being potentially insidious because poll results can actually affect public opinion as opposed to reflect it.
Do you believe polls accurately reflect opinion at a point in time or do the impact public opinion? Also, can polls be easily manipulated by one campaign or another to impact news coverage?
John Zogby : Another very good question. In all honesty I think we accurately take a snapshot of public opinion. It is very much like a photographer taking that snapshot of a moment in time. In many, instances if not most instances, I think that the snapshot confirms conventional wisdom. I don’t think you need a poll to tell you that this race is close just as I don’t think you needed a poll to tell you that Reagan was going to defeat Mondale in a landside. The good thing about a poll is that it grounds us. We all tend to hangout with people who agree with our views and then we extrapolate on the broader public what we learn within those circles. Example: “how can you say Bush isn’t leading by 50 points, everyone I know is voting for Bush” – that sort of thing. I don’t think the polls impact anymore on how people vote than conventional wisdom does. And even though there are differences in the polls from time to time – for example, Monday – I think anyway you slice it, this is a very close race.
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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Mr. Zogby -- last week CNN-Gallup and WAPO-ABC released polls showing Bush with a 4-6 point lead, while you (whose polls I put much more stock in) released a poll showing Kerry with a 3 point lead. Presumably, this does not come from the margin of error -- how is your selection technique different from the other two polls?
John Zogby : It really isn’t very different. I use listed telephone numbers instead of random digit dialing. At times I apply a weight for political party identification while at other times I don’t. But again, I think the polls are much closer to each other than they are apart and I would ask this question – after the two weeks that the president has had do people really believe he got a bump in the polls?
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Washington, D.C.: What do you think of sites like the Iowa Electronic Markets that predict elections by simulating stock markets? They claim to be more accurate than polls -- is this right?
John Zogby : They were up until 2000 when they had Bush leading by about six points. It is interesting. I watch it. But we are all in this kind of business humans, not gods. So we all have our moments when we are right and unfortunately some moments when we are wrong. But it sure as hell is fun playing this game.
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Arlington, Va.: Do you see any difference in the effectiveness of a candidate's own ads versus those produced by an independent interest group like Moveon.org? Is one type of ad better at swaying voters than the other?
John Zogby : Needless to say, the 527 ads are certainly more hard hitting, but in both instances I think the ads are mainly reinforcement mechanisms, meaning their greater impact is reinforcing support among the base for each candidate. That is why you are not really seeing any big bumps for any candidate.
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Milwaukee, Wis.: I read your list of blue states in play. What about Wisconsin?
John Zogby : I have a map right in front of me and I think Wisconsin stays blue –- it is the economy.
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Rochester, N.Y.: I believe you've done some international polling, particularly in the Middle East. Which countries do you find more pro-U.S. (or at least less hostile)? Do you think the theocracy in Iran has produced a pro American backlash?
John Zogby : Those are very good questions. Unfortunately Arabs and Muslims are very alienated. I am going in the field in the next couple of days in six Arab countries and I don’t believe I am going to see any increase in favorability toward the United States anywhere. If anything one might argue that the numbers are a little more favorable to the U.S. in Lebanon because of a heavier Christian population and because of the significant number of relatives and family members who are Lebanese and live in the U.S. But lets not kid ourselves, public opinion of the U.S. is down in Lebanon too.
I think it had produced a pro-American backlash until Iran was labeled as part of the Axis of Evil and that created a counter backlash.
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College Park, Md.: You've received some criticism for polling methods, particularly for only doing daytime polling and for not calling back if there is no one at home. What are the statistical differences between your methods and those who do call at night and call back? Why did you decide to poll the way you do?
John Zogby : That is so ridiculous. I don’t do only daytime calling. 70 percent of our calls are between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. I used daytime calling to convert people who are not reached in the evening and we do no less than three call backs to people who have not been reached initially.
Some of my colleagues have been critical and I have been critical of theirs, but my methodology is sound.
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Kalida, Ohio: Will the selection of Kerry's vice president change any of the polling in certain battlegrounds States? Example Richardson in New Mexico and Florida. Thanks.
John Zogby : Sure, Kerry has to decide if he is going to chose a running mate that will help him in a few states or help him in complimenting or supplementing an image. The Richardson choice could be a good one which could help in Arizona as well. The Gephardt choice, which I think would be the strongest choice, could certainly help tip Missouri, Ohio or even West Virginia. An Edwards choice would be more an image choice and a decision by Kerry to run a national campaign. So I don’t see Edwards helping to carry any southern state.
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Fairfax, Va.: Could we see a reverse of 2000 in this year's election with Kerry winning the electoral vote and losing the popular vote?
John Zogby : Oh in this election you can have many types of combinations like that. We are even more closely matched blue versus red than we were four years ago.
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Columbia, Md.: What must Kerry do to define himself with voters?
John Zogby : As he did in the latter weeks of the primary campaign he has got to define himself in bumper-sticker terms. I am a veteran. I can win. Here is where I stand: one, two, there. He is a very bright candidate and perhaps a bit too thoughtful on issues. One comes away with a sense that he is very nuanced and very philosophical but he needs to sharply focus on who he is and where he stands.
John Zogby : Thanks for a lot of very good question. Look forward to doing this again. Feel free to visit my website at zogby.com.
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