SCO: Divided in unity
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a six-member group that embraces Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, has been keen to mint itself as a full-fledged international organization and a major power in Central Eurasia. Yet despite official pronouncements of unity, disagreements between member states remain. Notably, border disputes between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan seem to expose the SCO's weakness as a vehicle to promote regional security.
As chief SCO diplomats gathered in the Russian capital on April 22-23, they pledged to address regional security concerns. "The SCO should play a more important role in safeguarding security in Central Asia," Kazakh Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev told the journalists in Moscow.
The SCO members, notably Uzbekistan, which was recently shaken by terrorist attacks, prefer to emphasize the need for the development of SCO's anti-terrorism capabilities. Uzbek Foreign Minister Sadyk Safayev stated that SCO should prioritize the fight against international terrorism, separatism and extremism.
Meanwhile, China and Russia are also both interested in seeing SCO develop a trade component. Russia stressed the need to improve regional trade, adding that Moscow accorded a special place to SCO among its trade partners. SCO states are now mulling a free trade agreement, Alexander Ivanov, director of the Asian department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, announced.
The meeting was also aimed to prepare for the next SCO summit, due in Uzbek capital Tashkent in June. The summit is expected to inaugurate the SCO anti-terrorism center. Leaders of Afghanistan and Mongolia have been invited to attend the Tashkent summit as guests of Uzbek President Islam Karimov.
When in June 2001 the informal Shanghai Five group of states became SCO, member states envisioned the organization as a counterweight to growing US economic and political influence. In June 2002, the leaders of the five states plus Uzbekistan agreed to base the SCO secretariat in Beijing, and to establish a joint-terrorism center.
However, SCO's smaller members have been keen to avoid an impression that they have been banding together with Russia and China to oppose the West. "SCO is not directed against any state, including the US," Kazakh chief diplomat Tokayev announced in Moscow on April 22.
It has been understood that Russia and China have reluctantly tolerated the US strategic presence in Central Asia. They are concerned that permanent American military bases in the region would be primarily designed to limit Beijing's and Moscow's influence in Central Asia.
Pledges of unity were reiterated in the Russian capital this week. Russia and China are united on key international issues, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his visiting Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing.
Meanwhile, the US seems to be moving towards establishing a long-term presence in Central Asia, in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, despite Russian overt and Chinese tacit opposition.
When the US established bases at Khanabad in Uzbekistan, and at Manas in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, the US promised that American forces would stay only as long as the regional terrorism threat remained. In recent months, however, US officials have indicated the possibility of more permanent Central Asian bases. Moreover, there has been a talk of an Asian collective security organization, a so-called "Asian NATO", an apparent would-be counterbalance to SCO.
During a visit to Uzbekistan in February, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld indicated that the US wanted to establish operating facilities: not permanent bases, but places where the US could have ad hoc access. In pledging that a potential US presence did not mean a large-scale military deployment, US officials hope to limit Russian and Chinese opposition to these plans for Central Asia.
Since September 11, Uzbekistan has closely aligned itself with the US in its anti-terrorism campaign. Uzbek Foreign Minister Sadyk Safayev did not rule out the possibility of a permanent US military base in Uzbekistan. Rumsfeld's remarks in Tashkent indicated that Uzbekistan was a candidate to host a potential US site. However, Kyrgyz officials are yet to agree with the permanent American military presence there.
Moscow has been insisting that the US military presence in the region is temporary and should be ended after anti-terrorism action in Afghanistan ends. Russia would accept US bases in Central Asia no longer than the anti-terrorism operation in Afghanistan, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has repeatedly reiterated.
However, continued border disputes between Central Asian states could provide Washington with a good pretext for staying longer in the name of stabilization. Border issues somewhat perturb relations among some Central Asian states, with Uzbekistan playing a central role in many of the disputes. In particular, since earlier this year, Tashkent's practice of mining its borders has been increasingly criticized by its neighbors.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both SCO members, have been the most vocal critics of the Uzbek mining policy, which Tashkent insists is a cornerstone of its anti-terrorist efforts. Mines have reportedly caused over 120 Tajik casualties since 2000, of whom 70 died. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also claimed that Uzbekistan had mined sections of their respective territory.
Beyond the land mine issue, poorly demarcated frontiers are in themselves a source of friction. Since earlier this year, Uzbekistan has accused Kyrgyzstan for delaying the border delimitation agreement that fixes over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) of the bilateral frontier. Tashkent had wanted the agreement to take effect by November of 2003. Kyrgyz officials, however, want to define a separate 250 kilometer stretch of frontier before the border agreement takes effect.
Though united in criticizing Uzbekistan on the mine issue, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are also divided among themselves about border issues. Kyrgyz officials, for example, have long accused Tajiks of encroaching into Kyrgyz territory.
Moreover, in yet another highlight of tensions between some SCO states, earlier this year a lieutenant in Tajikistan's border guards, Farmon Fozilov, was sentenced by a military court to 20 years in prison on charges of having spied for Uzbek border guards.
Nonetheless, the SCO still seeks to be a geopolitical player in Central Asian security developments, a trend also reflected in bilateral defense ties between Russia and China. "The SCO security potential is yet to be fully utilized," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced during his trip to China on April 20-22.
Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan, and his visiting Russian counterpart Ivanov discussed bilateral arms trading. The chairman of the Chinese Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, told Ivanov that military cooperation was an important part of the strategic partnership between the two nations. Last December, Moscow and Beijing clinched a deal under which China would procure $2 billion worth of Russian military hardware and technologies in 2004.
Ivanov also announced that a Chinese military unit would take part in the "Frontier-2004" war games next summer within the framework of SCO. Russian combat aircraft based in Kant, Kyrgyzstan, will join the exercise as well.
China has been seen as increasing its security ties in Central Asia through SCO. Notably, China has committed itself for the first time to a regional collective security agreement focused on enforcement of borders. The SCO anti-terrorist rapid deployment forces could be used to help enforce border security, along with the other members of the Shanghai group.
Moreover, SCO's leading states claim they have answers to the challenges of international terrorism. Russia and China know how to combat terrorism, Ivanov announced in Beijing on April 21. "Military measures should not be excessive but remain adequate regarding existing threats," he said.
Smaller SCO nations follow suit, with optimistic anti-terrorist pronouncements. "There are no reasons, either political or social, for terrorist outbreaks in Kazakhstan," Kazakh Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev argued in Moscow on April 22.
But despite official anti-terrorist pronouncements, border disagreements between some member states underline the limits of SCO's abilities and regional influence. If disputes between smaller SCO states persist, the Shanghai grouping could remain a discussion forum, forcing major powers - Russia and China - to reevaluate the group's perceived initial strategic purpose to counterweight growing US influence in the region.
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