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Iraqi debacle: At least the illusions are gone
Tom Switzer IHT Friday, April 23, 2004
Iraqi debacle
SYDNEY It now appears that the U.S. effort to remake Iraq as a viable and peaceful democratic state is likely to end in failure. If indeed that happens, it will be tragic for those in Iraq who long for peace, order and liberty.
.
For the United States, it will involve a certain amount of humiliation. But it is to be hoped that it will also involve the destruction of three dangerous illusions which have warped U.S. foreign policy in the post-9/11 era.
.
The first of these illusions is the belief that pre-emptive strikes are required to deal with rogue states in the new era. After Sept. 11, it was confidently predicted, containment no longer worked against the Saddam Hussein's of the world.
.
But one year after regime change, it's clear that the Iraqi threat could have been contained as indeed it had been contained since the 1991 Gulf War. For Saddam, far from being an ideological fanatic, was a cynical calculator whose overriding concern was to hold onto power and to exercise it ruthlessly over the unfortunate people of Iraq.
.
True, containment can't work against terrorists who can run and hide, but rogue states are different; they have a return address. And it should have been clear that Saddam knew if he smuggled weapons of mass destruction to Al Qaeda or used banned weapons against U.S. interests, his regime would have met massive retaliation from Washington. Of course, we now know he didn't even possess those weapons.
.
Yet for preventive war advocates, containment is a discredited policy; in the case of Iraq, it meant, as The Weekly Standard's neoconservative editors warned, coddling a suicidal tyrant. Never mind that containment (sanctions, naval blockade, no-fly zone) kept that suicidal tyrant in his box for over a decade. And never mind that although containment lacked the political sex appeal of "liberation," it at least recognized the dangers of unintended consequences that a liberated Iraq has now delivered.
.
The second illusion that has been badly damaged by Iraq is the belief that democracy is an export commodity. This noble idea has been an article of faith not only among neoconservatives in and outside of the Bush administration, but also among some on the left, such as Vanity Fair's Christopher Hitchens and Dissent Magazine's Paul Berman.
.
For these thinkers, history is on democracy's side, and the time is ripe to bring about the political transformation of the whole region. Some even argue that it is racist to suggest Iraqis can't embrace liberal democracy, gay rights, free abortion on demand and the like.
.
But the point here is not whether democratic values can coincide with Islamic ones; it is whether the conditions and circumstances in post-war Iraq are conducive to such vast social and political changes. And this is where comparisons between Germany and Japan in the mid-to-late 1940s to Iraq today come unstuck.
.
After all, Germany and Japan were genuine and coherent nations with homogeneous cultures while Iraq was an arbitrarily created state with deep ethnic divisions. Germany and Japan had already modernized and had a history, even if a blighted one, of parliamentary government on which the occupation forces could build. Iraq, however, is still in the process of modernizing and is open to all the disturbing ideological forces that this unleashes.
.
The third illusion that has also been badly damaged by Iraq is that the scope of American power is virtually limitless and that the United States can impose its will and leadership across the globe. This view, to be sure, had been widely held by neoconservatives following the collapse of the Soviet empire in the early 1990s. And it has gained more credibility in the aftermath of Sept. 11. Even the words "imperialism" and "empire," usually terms of abuse in American political discourse, have been wholeheartedly embraced by many influential thinkers on the Washington think-tank circuit.
.
But the idea of a heavy-handed policy to remake the world in America's image was bound to generate widespread hostility, resentment and concerted political opposition. Such a scenario was evident in the lead-up to war in early 2003 when the French-led UN Security Council ganged up to thwart the U.S.-led resolution to invade Iraq. And it is now evident in the way that Iraq's rival groups, the Sunnis and the Shiites, appear to be united against the alien occupiers.
.
The great British historian A.J.P. Taylor once said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. And there is no question that pre-emption, democracy promotion and a Pax Americana reflect President George W. Bush's well-intended pledge to change the world.
.
But it's neither in America's competence nor its interest to conduct a policy based on such illusions. That the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq is in the process of shattering those illusions may be the only consolation to be drawn from this hellhole.
.
Tom Switzer is opinion page editor of The Australian in Sydney.
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SYDNEY It now appears that the U.S. effort to remake Iraq as a viable and peaceful democratic state is likely to end in failure. If indeed that happens, it will be tragic for those in Iraq who long for peace, order and liberty.
.
For the United States, it will involve a certain amount of humiliation. But it is to be hoped that it will also involve the destruction of three dangerous illusions which have warped U.S. foreign policy in the post-9/11 era.
.
The first of these illusions is the belief that pre-emptive strikes are required to deal with rogue states in the new era. After Sept. 11, it was confidently predicted, containment no longer worked against the Saddam Hussein's of the world.
.
But one year after regime change, it's clear that the Iraqi threat could have been contained as indeed it had been contained since the 1991 Gulf War. For Saddam, far from being an ideological fanatic, was a cynical calculator whose overriding concern was to hold onto power and to exercise it ruthlessly over the unfortunate people of Iraq.
.
True, containment can't work against terrorists who can run and hide, but rogue states are different; they have a return address. And it should have been clear that Saddam knew if he smuggled weapons of mass destruction to Al Qaeda or used banned weapons against U.S. interests, his regime would have met massive retaliation from Washington. Of course, we now know he didn't even possess those weapons.
.
Yet for preventive war advocates, containment is a discredited policy; in the case of Iraq, it meant, as The Weekly Standard's neoconservative editors warned, coddling a suicidal tyrant. Never mind that containment (sanctions, naval blockade, no-fly zone) kept that suicidal tyrant in his box for over a decade. And never mind that although containment lacked the political sex appeal of "liberation," it at least recognized the dangers of unintended consequences that a liberated Iraq has now delivered.
.
The second illusion that has been badly damaged by Iraq is the belief that democracy is an export commodity. This noble idea has been an article of faith not only among neoconservatives in and outside of the Bush administration, but also among some on the left, such as Vanity Fair's Christopher Hitchens and Dissent Magazine's Paul Berman.
.
For these thinkers, history is on democracy's side, and the time is ripe to bring about the political transformation of the whole region. Some even argue that it is racist to suggest Iraqis can't embrace liberal democracy, gay rights, free abortion on demand and the like.
.
But the point here is not whether democratic values can coincide with Islamic ones; it is whether the conditions and circumstances in post-war Iraq are conducive to such vast social and political changes. And this is where comparisons between Germany and Japan in the mid-to-late 1940s to Iraq today come unstuck.
.
After all, Germany and Japan were genuine and coherent nations with homogeneous cultures while Iraq was an arbitrarily created state with deep ethnic divisions. Germany and Japan had already modernized and had a history, even if a blighted one, of parliamentary government on which the occupation forces could build. Iraq, however, is still in the process of modernizing and is open to all the disturbing ideological forces that this unleashes.
.
The third illusion that has also been badly damaged by Iraq is that the scope of American power is virtually limitless and that the United States can impose its will and leadership across the globe. This view, to be sure, had been widely held by neoconservatives following the collapse of the Soviet empire in the early 1990s. And it has gained more credibility in the aftermath of Sept. 11. Even the words "imperialism" and "empire," usually terms of abuse in American political discourse, have been wholeheartedly embraced by many influential thinkers on the Washington think-tank circuit.
.
But the idea of a heavy-handed policy to remake the world in America's image was bound to generate widespread hostility, resentment and concerted political opposition. Such a scenario was evident in the lead-up to war in early 2003 when the French-led UN Security Council ganged up to thwart the U.S.-led resolution to invade Iraq. And it is now evident in the way that Iraq's rival groups, the Sunnis and the Shiites, appear to be united against the alien occupiers.
.
The great British historian A.J.P. Taylor once said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. And there is no question that pre-emption, democracy promotion and a Pax Americana reflect President George W. Bush's well-intended pledge to change the world.
.
But it's neither in America's competence nor its interest to conduct a policy based on such illusions. That the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq is in the process of shattering those illusions may be the only consolation to be drawn from this hellhole.
.
Tom Switzer is opinion page editor of The Australian in Sydney. Iraqi debacle
SYDNEY It now appears that the U.S. effort to remake Iraq as a viable and peaceful democratic state is likely to end in failure. If indeed that happens, it will be tragic for those in Iraq who long for peace, order and liberty.
.
For the United States, it will involve a certain amount of humiliation. But it is to be hoped that it will also involve the destruction of three dangerous illusions which have warped U.S. foreign policy in the post-9/11 era.
.
The first of these illusions is the belief that pre-emptive strikes are required to deal with rogue states in the new era. After Sept. 11, it was confidently predicted, containment no longer worked against the Saddam Hussein's of the world.
.
But one year after regime change, it's clear that the Iraqi threat could have been contained as indeed it had been contained since the 1991 Gulf War. For Saddam, far from being an ideological fanatic, was a cynical calculator whose overriding concern was to hold onto power and to exercise it ruthlessly over the unfortunate people of Iraq.
.
True, containment can't work against terrorists who can run and hide, but rogue states are different; they have a return address. And it should have been clear that Saddam knew if he smuggled weapons of mass destruction to Al Qaeda or used banned weapons against U.S. interests, his regime would have met massive retaliation from Washington. Of course, we now know he didn't even possess those weapons.
.
Yet for preventive war advocates, containment is a discredited policy; in the case of Iraq, it meant, as The Weekly Standard's neoconservative editors warned, coddling a suicidal tyrant. Never mind that containment (sanctions, naval blockade, no-fly zone) kept that suicidal tyrant in his box for over a decade. And never mind that although containment lacked the political sex appeal of "liberation," it at least recognized the dangers of unintended consequences that a liberated Iraq has now delivered.
.
The second illusion that has been badly damaged by Iraq is the belief that democracy is an export commodity. This noble idea has been an article of faith not only among neoconservatives in and outside of the Bush administration, but also among some on the left, such as Vanity Fair's Christopher Hitchens and Dissent Magazine's Paul Berman.
.
For these thinkers, history is on democracy's side, and the time is ripe to bring about the political transformation of the whole region. Some even argue that it is racist to suggest Iraqis can't embrace liberal democracy, gay rights, free abortion on demand and the like.
.
But the point here is not whether democratic values can coincide with Islamic ones; it is whether the conditions and circumstances in post-war Iraq are conducive to such vast social and political changes. And this is where comparisons between Germany and Japan in the mid-to-late 1940s to Iraq today come unstuck.
.
After all, Germany and Japan were genuine and coherent nations with homogeneous cultures while Iraq was an arbitrarily created state with deep ethnic divisions. Germany and Japan had already modernized and had a history, even if a blighted one, of parliamentary government on which the occupation forces could build. Iraq, however, is still in the process of modernizing and is open to all the disturbing ideological forces that this unleashes.
.
The third illusion that has also been badly damaged by Iraq is that the scope of American power is virtually limitless and that the United States can impose its will and leadership across the globe. This view, to be sure, had been widely held by neoconservatives following the collapse of the Soviet empire in the early 1990s. And it has gained more credibility in the aftermath of Sept. 11. Even the words "imperialism" and "empire," usually terms of abuse in American political discourse, have been wholeheartedly embraced by many influential thinkers on the Washington think-tank circuit.
.
But the idea of a heavy-handed policy to remake the world in America's image was bound to generate widespread hostility, resentment and concerted political opposition. Such a scenario was evident in the lead-up to war in early 2003 when the French-led UN Security Council ganged up to thwart the U.S.-led resolution to invade Iraq. And it is now evident in the way that Iraq's rival groups, the Sunnis and the Shiites, appear to be united against the alien occupiers.
.
The great British historian A.J.P. Taylor once said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. And there is no question that pre-emption, democracy promotion and a Pax Americana reflect President George W. Bush's well-intended pledge to change the world.
.
But it's neither in America's competence nor its interest to conduct a policy based on such illusions. That the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq is in the process of shattering those illusions may be the only consolation to be drawn from this hellhole.
.
Tom Switzer is opinion page editor of The Australian in Sydney. Iraqi debacle
SYDNEY It now appears that the U.S. effort to remake Iraq as a viable and peaceful democratic state is likely to end in failure. If indeed that happens, it will be tragic for those in Iraq who long for peace, order and liberty.
.
For the United States, it will involve a certain amount of humiliation. But it is to be hoped that it will also involve the destruction of three dangerous illusions which have warped U.S. foreign policy in the post-9/11 era.
.
The first of these illusions is the belief that pre-emptive strikes are required to deal with rogue states in the new era. After Sept. 11, it was confidently predicted, containment no longer worked against the Saddam Hussein's of the world.
.
But one year after regime change, it's clear that the Iraqi threat could have been contained as indeed it had been contained since the 1991 Gulf War. For Saddam, far from being an ideological fanatic, was a cynical calculator whose overriding concern was to hold onto |
