Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (4896)	4/25/2004 5:14:43 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 60924

I think a 2 of major degree more brutal re sentiment than a 4 of similar degree, just mo. 4's should in general be quicker I think. We are well beyond the second major correction in POG and HUI, no matter how you count it. Least it seems that way to m. I currently favor POG in early stages of a 3 up, maybe at a ii of 3. I am now LT less certain where the HUI is, but maybe same place. I currenly believe POG is going much much higher than 500/600 before it completes a first primary wave up. Is this a LT bulls view, and clouded? Look at the XAU and the SA gold indexes - they might be supportive of my view. The HUI does not have adequate history to argue much, one way or the other.

To: NOW who wrote (4896)	4/25/2004 6:51:08 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60924

There are three possible counts here that I can see: 1) Golds are finishing Intermediate Wave 4 down of Primary Wave 1 up. Stocks like GFI and KGC definitely look like they fall into this camp. These stocks are great canaries. Any break above this consolidation on GFI and gold are a go. 2) Golds are in "A" of Primary Wave 2 down and we are finishing the "c" of that A. The big kahuna "3" up would be set for 2005 (something that PEI and Armstrong predicted in the late 1990s). This would mean a nice "B" rally over the next couple of months and then a swan dive into the fall (perhaps with the general market). This is probably my preferred count. Of course with a "B" we can set new highs. 3) The big "C" of Primary Wave 4 up in the gold bear has ended and we have begun Wave 5 down (Prechter's view). Based on the negative to neutral sentiment on the golds this one is looking more and more unlikely IMO. As even Prechter has the Wave 1 down already done all three of these say up in the the next couple of months.