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To: Henry Niman who wrote (49053)	4/26/2004 10:43:46 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Henry, I will travel to Beijing tomorrow and return on Friday. I will be hanging out with client and client's potential partner, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. We will be talking disease diagnostic type of stuff, of which I do not know anything about. I will be helping out on feasibility determination, structuring, negotiating, and planning for the business of disease diagnosis. We will be visiting the Union Hospital in Beijing which I understand to be a teaching hospital. The outfit will play a role in the construct. I understand one of the Chinese characters we will be holding discussions with is a scientific authority on diseases that fly through the air. I will be in full battle gear, N95 mask and surgical goggle, plus constant hand washing. I feel strange, as if I am going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, you know, as if I am going to Iraq. Chugs, Jay

To: Henry Niman who wrote (49053)	4/29/2004 2:54:58 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Cases really don't go into the denominator until they are discharged, so the case fatality rate remains at 100%.> Yes Henry and that's what I was explaining last year when everyone was dismissing sars as a 2% problem. I had estimated a death rate of 7% but maybe 10%, which is what we ended up with, overall, though higher in some places. It amazed me that doctors, and everyone, didn't seem to get the idea that until somebody was cured, they shouldn't be counted in the statistics measuring death rate. BTW, do you think people necessarily get a fever with sars? I had an influenza type infection while in Beijing in January, which led me to spend 4 days in bed, not eating [food didn't appeal at all], and ending in a lung infection which hung on for a couple of weeks as it gradually reduced. I lost a few kilograms. The lung infection resulted in phlegm, which I understand sars doesn't cause [which surprises me]. I don't think I had a fever. How long do sars antibodies last [so that a blood sample would show whether the person had had sars]? It seemed to me very unlikely to be sars, but now I wonder. I haven't had an infection like that for decades [lung infection with phlegm]. Not wanting to eat was odd too. Usually with flu bugs I'm eating like a piggy. The skin infection I got didn't improve my feelings of joy either. I'm glad I wasn't living in the hutongs [though they were all around us]. There are 8000 people who have had sars. They should be front-line troops against an outbreak of the disease, assuming their antibodies and immunity remain for a year or three. Last year, the medical people died in droves, including Dr Urbani, our challenger who was supposed to defeat sars. The medical guilds being as they are, they won't have figured out that those 8000 are valuable people to help control the spread of sars. They'll have vulnerable people dealing with the current cases, nursing the sick and inhaling the same air, even if it is, usually, through N95 filters. Immune people wouldn't need to wear masks and wouldn't propagate the disease! Mqurice