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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (12633)4/26/2004 10:54:37 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 110194
 
technical and fundamental evidence of end to US$ bounce

goldmoney.com

"The Buck Stops Here"
by Jim Turk of GoldMoney

hitting upper rail of downtrend channel now in logarithmic scale
an excerpt:

We have to ask ourselves what underlying fundamentals have changed as the dollar has rallied over the past few weeks that have improved the dollar's situation? In a word, none.

* The federal debt is growing by more than 10% per annum;
* Inflationary pressures continue to mount;
* Shortages of materials - a warning sign of rising inflation - are becoming more numerous;
* Crude oil is continuing its climb toward $40 per barrel;
* The US trade deficit continues at or near record levels and on and on and on.

The only thing good that happened to the dollar over the past few weeks is that it rallied. It is clear that this rally is not based on factors arising from any underlying fundamental improvement in the prospects for the dollar. No, the dollar has rallied because on a short-term basis it was oversold. But as the above chart clearly shows, the long-term downtrend channel (marked by the two parallel red lines) for the dollar remains firmly in place.