Fournier is doing a series of four articles on the election from the midwest. This is the second.
Kerry Seeks Small Number of Swing Voters
By RON FOURNIER
The Associated Press
Sunday, April 25, 2004; 7:57 PM
HAMMOND, Wis. - With most Americans firmly set in their political allegiances, John Kerry's efforts against President Bush must be directed at a shrinking percentage of swing voters - those who switch sides from year to year.
Bush is in trouble if Kerry can persuade voters of two things: Anxious times demand change and the Democratic challenger is a safe alternative to the wartime incumbent. Neither goal is easily within reach.
Pollsters say 15 to 30 percent of all voters are up for grabs, but strategists for Bush and Kerry, relying on voting habits as well as polls, say the figure is even smaller - about 8 percent. In a close election, like the disputed 2000 contest, these swing voters could be critical.
Interviews with dozens of voters in five crucial states along the Mississippi River indicate they are warming to change because of the war in Iraq and the balky U.S. economy. Just as swing voters four years ago were looking for a straight-shooting alternative to a scandal-scarred Clinton administration - a yearning that Bush eventually exploited - this year's independent voters are looking for a new direction.
"I'll vote for whoever can go over to Iraq and straighten it out," said Don McPherson, 75, a St. Peters, Mo., retiree who voted for Bush in 2000. "It's a mess right now."
But many of these voters don't know much about Kerry - and much of what they do know comes from Bush's negative television ads.
Dan Kane, 36, of Coon Rapids, Minn., is tired of the violence in Iraq and impatient with the slow pace of economic recovery, though he noticed that 308,000 jobs were created in March. He trusts Bush less than he once did, in large part because of doubts about the president's rationale for waging war.
But he finds no comfort in Kerry. Swiping the air with a squeegee, Kane stops cleaning his car's windshield to complain about the Democrat's "famous flip-flops" and damn Bush with faint praise.
"I have a choice between someone with convictions - even if I don't agree with many of them," Kane says of Bush as he stands at a gas pump. "Or a guy who doesn't have any convictions at all."
In Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas, few swing voters are pleased with their choices. These states, with their ever-changing populations, typically produce close presidential contests. At stake are a total of 44 electoral votes.
"I'm not happy with either man," said Dan Bartell, 48, a carpenter working in Wisconsin's rural St. Croix County across the river from St. Paul, Minn.
A bear-sized man with overalls covering his frame, Bartell sits on a rickety wooden sidewalk, his feet dangling a few inches from the ground.
"I'm pretty conservative in a lot of ways, but this guy has gone way to far," he says of Bush. "As for Kerry, I don't know much about him, and don't like what I know about him."
Polling for The Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs shows swing voters are split evenly between Bush and Kerry. They are more likely to favor Kerry over Bush on the question of which candidate cares about voters like them. Among all voters, Kerry holds a slight lead on that question.
Swing voters pick Kerry over Bush when asked which candidate has a vision for the future. Among all voters, the candidates were tied. Swing voters were more likely than voters in general to think Bush could do a better job protecting the country, and Kerry would do better at creating jobs.
Nearly 60 percent of all voters believe America is on the wrong track.
Besides complaining about Iraq and the economy, some swing voters argue that Bush's tax cuts are driving up the national debt. Others, like Curt Rootkie, 20, of Anoka, Minn., have no problem with tax cuts for the wealthy. "I'd like to be rich some day," says the union laborer.
Many expressed anxiety over the fast pace of today's society and the coarsening of American culture. They share a longing for simpler times, when even an evil like war was more clear cut.
Cyril Ell, 79, former American Legion post commander in St. Peters, Mo., said Bush has "stirred up a nest" in Iraq. "We could win the war we were in," the World War II veteran said of the battle he fought. "I don't think they can win this one."
Still, swing voters like Anoka's Kevin Murphy aren't sure they have the stomach for change. In a cruel twist for Kerry, some voters said world violence and terrorism make them less eager to shake up the White House.
"Do you just hand over the military to a new guy in an ugly time like this?" Murphy said outside a Minnesota coffee shop. "It's got to be for a darn good reason."
Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., a top adviser in the Clinton White House, said voters are funny that way. They like to talk about a new direction, but find change scary - especially in a time of war.
Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, a Democrat, said worried voters crave a leader with vision, but neither Bush nor Kerry has provided much.
"Senator Kerry is going to have to assure people that he does have vision and he is capable of leading the country through tough times. If he accomplishes that, he's in good shape. If he doesn't do that," Doyle said, his voice trailing off.
Kerry's aides privately acknowledge that Democratic officials are right - their candidate hasn't fleshed out his argument for change. They promise that will start in the coming days as Kerry launches a multimillion dollar advertising campaign designed to fill in his biography and general election message.
Sandra Burroughs, 35, a seminary student in Dubuque, Iowa, said she's tired of Bush but doesn't even know Kerry's current job or home state - "Isn't he from Kansas?" she asks of the four-term Massachusetts senator.
Even some Democrats-leaning voters are down on Kerry. "I guess he's a war hero. I guess he's a statesman. But I know one thing - he's made a bad impression," said Jami Stromberg, 33, a veterinarian from suburban Minneapolis.
"Why support Bush's Iraq war resolution and not the money to pay for it?" she says, a reference to Kerry's vote against the $87 billion aid package for Iraq and Afghanistan that has been prominent in Bush's ads. "Pick a position and stick with it."
Slow to find his footing after the primary season, Kerry hopes to begin appealing to swing voters like Marian Menn of Marshfield, Wis. Sitting between her 10-year-old twin sons, Colin and Nathan, at a custard stand in rural Wisconsin, she says her support for Bush is flagging. What about Kerry?
"All I know is he once supported raising gas taxes by 10 cents a gallon," she says.
"No, mom," blurts Colin as he tugs at his mom's sleeve. "It's 50 cents." An avid TV watcher, the boy has absorbed Bush's ads.
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Associated Press Writers Will Lester and Trevor Tompson contributed to this report.
Next: Targeting Republican strongholds beyond the suburbs.
© 2004 The Associated Press |
