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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (43979)	4/27/2004 1:09:20 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Bush catches Saddam disease RICHARD GWYN From the moment the Americans invaded Iraq, Saddam Hussein was in denial about what was happening. He refused to believe that the American military machine was as awesomely efficient as it is; he refused to believe that very few of his troops would fight and die for him. Saddam, indeed, was in denial long before that. He refused to believe the Americans would actually invade. He refused to believe he had no weapons of mass destruction because his scientists kept telling him they were working on them while investing his money in real estate in Saudi Arabia. As went Saddam — into deep denial — so George W. Bush is showing increasing signs of doing. It's all going bad and getting worse for Bush in Iraq. He keeps responding by saying he will "stand firm." That's decisive and tough all right. But it means that instead of thinking, Bush is operating on instinct. That instead of dealing with reality he's refusing to accept it, convinced that by sheer determination and toughness he can overcome all problems. Which is pure denial. The reality about Iraq is that the Americans have lost there. They've lost the peace, that's to say. Except for a miracle, it's now unwinnable for them. The latest confirmation of how everything has become unstuck is the much-heralded handover of sovereignty to the Iraqis on June 30. This was always something of a con because it would have involved only nominal sovereignty. Now it has become the worst kind of con — a glaringly visible one. The word from Washington is now that while sovereignty will still be handed over to some form of caretaker government, this administration will have only partial control over its own armed forces and no power to enact any new laws. The new Iraqi government, thus, would be as much a puppet as the existing, and widely despised, American-appointed Governing Council. An argument can certainly be made that Iraq is now so chaotic that the American-led coalition will still have to run the place until elections due to be held early next year. In political and diplomatic terms, though, this is an abject admission of failure. And it means the Americans will remain, visibly, as occupiers until well into next year, at a minimum. These days, the news from Iraq is always about failure, never about success. The allies are pulling out their troops; first Spain, then Honduras (hardly a severe military setback) and, next, Norway. Reconstruction, which is critical to winning hearts and minds by demonstrating that along with democracy comes economic progress, has been halted by the violence, most especially the kidnapping of so-called "contractors." Insurgents are now so bold that in Falluja, a weeklong ceasefire that U.S. Marines hoped would result in the surrender of weapons has produced, almost contemptuously, a handful of weapons, all of them antiquated and defective. Policy keeps being changed, which robs it of any credibility. Once, "de-Baathization" or the rooting out all ex-members of Saddam's Baath party from official posts, was a way of showing that a clean, new administration was being installed. Washington has just announced that because ex-Baathists had irreplaceable administrative skills, many of them will be welcomed back. And on and on and on. Bush's options have narrowed down to one that is stark and brutal. This is how to get out with a minimum loss of face. His exit strategy for doing this is now to use the United Nations as a cover. Of all the policy reversals, this is the most complete. Once derided and excluded from Iraq, the U.N. is now being welcomed in to provide the vital ingredient of legitimacy. Whether the U.N. can do this job under even the best of circumstances is an open question. It has botched nation building in Kosovo. It is enmeshed in a massive scandal over corruption in its pre-war oil-for-food program for Iraq. The U.N.'s prospects for success in Iraq are faint if it is seen as an instrument for giving legitimacy to a continued U.S. presence in Iraq. In his just-published book, Plan Of Attack, Bob Woodward quotes Bush as telling him, "I believe we have a duty to free people." There's no doubt Bush genuinely believes this. True believers do have real value. But it's a quality for a private individual, not for a president. If Bush would — or could — stand back and actually think about Iraq he'd realize that what most Iraqis now want to be free of is him. That's why he's lost. But as a true believer, he can only deal with it by denial. thestar.com lurqer