Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (41129)	4/27/2004 12:54:51 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69877

AUO CC Listening to the call now. Hit a garbled section, but seem to indicate a decrease q-q in either sales or shipments. Component shipment an issues. Seeing a shortage. Increase in LCD-TV rev. Expected to increase going forward as a percent of sales. End of June will ramp new fab or substrates. Expect 60,000 substrates per month from feb. Phase 2 Gen site fab. Expect ASP to increase slightly due to sales of larger size panels. Expect fab capacity to be fully utilized. Q&A Now. Q: Will glass and LCD driver shortage continue? Are you getting all that you need? A: Expect tightness in glass and LCD drivers to continue for the rest of the year. So far getting all the components we need. Hard to tell if this will continue. Q: Panel demand usually weak in June and July. What do you expect this year? A: Too early to tell yet. Some far have not seen it. Expect commerical demand to continue. Expect some risk on consumer side in June and July. Due to short period effect on ASP will be small. Q: 12 mil cash raise??? Used for employee incentives? A: Have 3 years to do it. Q: Feedback from customers on consistent price increases that have been seen. Color? Capacity will remain tight for little while? A: Depends on market segment. Monitor prices have been increasing, but not sharp increase. Reaching point that upside is limited. Customers do want to see anymore price increases. Prices have increased since low point last year. No longer seeing sub-$300 monitors. Larger 17 inch monitors not longer less than $400. Starting to hamper demand. Q:Comment on LCD-TV business. Size mix in segment. A: Unit shipments roughly 5 percent of large panel shipments. 70 percent of shipments 20 inch. 5 percent greater than 20 inch. In Q2 expect increase in total shipments of large panel for LCD-TV. Expect increase from 5 percent to 8 percent. Above 30 inch will grow from 6 to 8 percent to 20 percent. Target for LCD-TV panels 1.5 mil units for year. 1/3 of that will be above 30 inch. Q: Expect panel prices to come down through year. A: More than 10 percent decline. Likely 20 percent decline by end of year in comparsion to beginning of year. Q: Break down of panel by size by volume for monitor and notebook. A: Larger panel(10 inch or more) 65 percnet monitors. Notebook 30 percent. 5 percent LCD-TV. Within monitors 60 percent 17 inch. 20 percent 19 inch. 20 percent 15 inch. Notebooks: > 60 percent 15 inch, 30 percent 14 inch, rest 12 inchor less Q:Gen 6? When will it ramp. A: Under construction. Production around Feb next year. Construction on schedule. Q: Inventory level? A: 37 day turn around. Very reasonable in our opinion. Complete manufacturing process about 2 weeks and a few days of transit. Q: Will continue at 37 days going forward? A: 2 weeks shipment to China. Then back end assembly in China. So 3 weeks to complete process. Q: 19 inch LCD monitor demand. Pricing a premium in comparison to 17 inch. Is it due to corporate or consumer demand? A: 19 inch new product. Demand is comerical, but diverse higher end like banking industry. Total demand for year 10 percent will be 19 inch for industry. We are top 2 of suppliers of 19 inch. march shipment 200,0000. Expect 10 to 15 percent for industry. Q: Cash dividend set yet? A: No. Waiting for shareholder meeting. Q: Shipment trend and target for whole year. A: Low teens q-q growth. Significant growth next q for medium size panels. 19 mil for large size for whole year. 36 mil for medium for whole year. Q: ASP for year? A: Blended ASP will increase next Q moderately. Divide segments in monitors, notebooks and TV's. Given supply constraint and commerical and consumer demand due to holiday season, we do not see a big ASP decline in PC market. For large panel TV we expect a 20 percent decrease in ASP. Next Gen 6 to increase demand for large panel. Need price drop to increase demand. Q: Plans for 7 G? A: In planning stage only? No update on financing yet. No change in Cap Ex yet. Q: Guidance on component pricing? A: Glass, IC driver and later this year polarizers. Glass pricing will stay stable. Some fluctuation in drivers. Probably up ward pressure. Polarizer stable for now. Three most critical components now. No comment going into 2005. Q: Percent of color filter sourced in house now? A: Happy with progress in yield and quality and ramp. Percentage: 70 percent from Gen 5 fab. Q: Expect TV panel prices to decline 20 percent for year, how is that possible given more complicated manufacturing and component pricing? A: Expect yield improvement. Hard to say whether we can hit that price decline target. Q: Depreciation expectation in Q2 and year? A: Q2 expect increase due to Gen 5. Increase to 5.5 to 5.7 billion. Rest of year 6 bil per q approximately. FOr year 23 to 24 bill Q: Yield from Gen 5? Expectation on yield improvements in Q2? A: 80 percent. Still have some room to improve to high 80's. A: