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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (49086)	4/27/2004 10:05:59 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<He said that he probably wouldn't return to Canada because Canada spends much less money per capita on research than does the US.> He also wouldn't have 2 nickles to rub together when he retired! Heathcare system changing fast up there though... lot's of increased productivity coming down the pipeline in Canada, making the Canuckistan dollar a downright steal vs the $US IMO. DAK

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (49086)	4/27/2004 11:05:07 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>Any ideas out there?<< The answer to this question is right under your nose, yet remains unrecognized. "Canada spends much less money per capita on research than does the US. This sort of thing has investment significance.....the US is still the world fountain of new technology" The third leg of the greatest economic expansion and the greatest equity bull market in history is, as we speak, under way. This decade in the US will be a replay of the 1990s, except that the end-of-decade stock market excesses will likely be greater. If you understand this, the question of where to invest is easily answered. US growth stocks. Tech. stocks will lead, as they did in the 90s, with the Nasdaq likely breaking 10,000 this time around. There's a boatload of money to be made, but few will have the necessary brains and guts to make it. The picture will be much clearer towards the end of 2005, but by then a 100% move in the Dow and S&P and 150% in the Nasdaq (from the 2002 lows) will already be behind us. If this seems ridiculous to you, it is because you are focusing on a limited data set, a data set that does not conflict with your preconceived bias and personal value judgments regarding debt and consumption. Supporting data for the bull case is now available in unlimited supply, but you will need to open your mind to see it.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (49086)	4/27/2004 11:40:51 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

I would look at the leverage in the RE shares... that would worry me especially if the leverage is of the floating rate variety. I like your oil and there's nothing wrong with a lot of cash IMO. Everyone hates cash and is fully invested in US stocks, so the opposite should be nice. :)) Futher as to the 'technology' worry. I wouldn't worry so much, there is a TON of medical technology just plain being flushed down the pooper as Western medicine continues to run into reality.... ie. drugs that attempt to replace healthy lifestyle and diet are doomed to failure [ie. probably most of the new investment], and therefore 'underinvestment' by Canada may be damn prudent. As to 'tech' in general, remember that an aweful lot of investment is happening simply because the capital is there... ie. people around the world are willing to fund us with their capital, Americans are more willing to invest in such ventures, AND Americans are much more willing to leverage to do so. Now you can argue about why this is, and whether it can continue, etc. till your head caves in, BUT it doesn't mean it's necessarily a good investment [do your DD] AND it doesn't imply a policy mistake on other countries part. Your internet example is telling as MOST of the related investments are absolute crap at one price point or another along the way. I'm not sure the % of people using the internet is any more meaningful than the % of people driving vehicles in excess of 2 tons. :)) DAK

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (49086)	4/28/2004 2:18:59 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm - looks like a choice between the hyper active and dangerous (US, and maybe Austrailia ?) and the calm but sluggish. Right now, I would take a look at Japan. There's a negative article on China & Japan investing in this week's Barron' that I would read first. Japan is an aging society that is adapting - and second largest GDP in the world. There is also likley to be a currency appreciation kicker - which really helps returns and cuts risk. You can get in an out easily with an ETH like EWJ. Or, pays some management fees and benefit from stock picking with MJFOX, FJSCX, SPJNX. I have MJFOX currently. I have not bought individual Japanesse stocks, but I should consider it.