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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (5176)	4/28/2004 2:55:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

A deflationary collapse requires two special factors to be present: 1. A strong or desirable currency that people are content to hold; 2. An inability by monetary authorities to create new money at will. kitco.com ==================================================================== I do not think it requires either of those. I prefer these two 1) more goods chasing fewer $ 2) refusal of people to take on more debt regardless of how much money is printed #1 will happen in a declining jobs and wage environment with overcapacity to produce goods. It is enhanced if non-discressionary costs rise at the same time (oil, food, and medical) #2 can be voluntary (people just stop buying on their own accord) or non-voluntary (credit standsrds are tightened and banks do not lend regardless of how much money the FED prints) I would say Kitco is wrong Mish

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (5176)	4/28/2004 3:02:23 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

but 6% a year growth for the next 50 years with no let up? Well, let's think this through. India's current GDP per capita is about $2,500 if this grows 6% for 50 years, it'll be $46,000. The U.S. ,if memory serves, is just south of $40,000 currently. So in other words, that growth would bring India's per capita GDP to the current U.S. in half a century. Unthinkable? Who's to say?