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To: The Freep who wrote (95384)	4/28/2004 3:52:57 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

<<...if you could show me...>> .....if I could show you, I wouldn't NEED faith.....<VBG> But cutting the nonsense (mine), I still see nothing which violates...or rules out.....my current read......That we began a B up at the March lows......We did an (a) up into Apr 5, and we're now in the (b) down.......(both as parts of the B up from Mar) I'll certainly change this tune when I have to.....but not quite there yet. Biggest threat to this scenario at the moment is the lagging ...almost broken....SOX...... Just don't see any compelling reasons to think we're in a 3 down (assume you mean 3 down from the Jan highs). As to a C down (again from Jan highs) would have to consider that IF we break below the Mar lows (as we may be threatening in the SOX) OT.....have fun with GDP tomorrow.....I'll be having fun in the AM...and I hope for not long.....with my annual physical check-up....

To: The Freep who wrote (95384)	4/28/2004 4:23:48 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

There is every reason to be bearish here Freep, things are cracking all over. I have no exposure on the short side but that's OK, if I miss the first wave I am fine with it. When you play an uptrend as we have over the last 18 months or so your bound to eventually buy a dip that does not work. Have we begun a major down here? I am not convinced yet but I am not into taking any new bullish bets. The SOX crash count is very much alive and is certainly worth playing if entry can had.